The Phillies are once again in a transitional period, still very talented and intending to contend next year, but needing to make moves, with Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, and others set to be free agents. The good news is, they’ll have space to work with to make moves. In this exercise, I’ll be working with the upper tax limit (ie, $60 million over the first luxury tax) as a budget to remake the Phillies roster for 2026. The following details the moves I would make.
Arbitration:
Retained:
Luzardo ($10.4 million)
Sosa ($3.9)
Bohm ($10.3)
Marsh ($4.5)
Durán ($7.6)
Stott ($5.8)
Banks ($1.2)
Marchán ($1)
Non-tendered:
Stubbs
Total Cost: $44.7 million
Nothing crazy here. I think there’s a case for tendering Stubbs on a split contract, but he’s out of options and probably isn’t making the team either way.
Options:
Declined:
Alvarado
Other payouts:
Bader (declined mutual option; $3 million buyout)
Total Cost: $3.5 million
The Phillies pay a $500,000 opt out for Alvarado, and a $3 million buyout for Bader’s declined mutual option.
During the writing of this, the Phillies picked up Alvarado’s option. This basically factors in as a $500,000 increase from the projected payouts I was going to have Alvarado get, per below.
Free Agents:
Josh Naylor - 3 years
2026 - $22 million
2027 - $22 million
2028 - $22 million
I know, I know, it’s not the flashiest headliner to replace Kyle Schwarber, but let me get into the weeds a bit. Firstly, I think the more and more I look, the more ill-advised a $30+ million replacement for the Schwarber spot is. Beyond that? I’m not crazy about the options. Cody Bellinger will get too much for my taste, IMO. Gleyber Torres is meh. Trent Grisham will get more as a great CF than I’d like to give him as someone who had a massive outlier season.
Enter: Josh Naylor. Coming into last season, Naylor was a Guardians cast-off more or less on a prove-it deal with Arizona. He was great for Arizona, providing a balanced approach at the plate, but also while mixing in something unexpected - opportunistic base-stealing, setting his career high for steals before the deadline. Granted, it was just 11, but what happened in Seattle was astonishing - he went 19/19 on SB attempts after the deadline.
I don’t expect Naylor to steal 30 bases again next year, but in the last three seasons he’s done something quite impressive - .300 average in 2023, 30 HR in 2024, and 30 steals in 2025. All told, he’s averaged .280/.341/.468 with 17.7 steals the past three seasons. That balanced offensive output could really help this team, and he’s still got plenty of prime left (he’s nearly a year younger than Alec Bohm, set to turn 29 in June). While not versatile, he’s fine at 1B, and can get Harper off his feet a bit, something I’d love out of the team’s next DH. That all sets up for a decent mid-term contract that gives Naylor a nice payout, but also the ability to re-test the market at 31 and earn another nice payout. I would also run this deal to 4 years if need be. Irregardless, the point about what he brings to the team remains the same - he adds some extra speed to the lineup while also still providing serious value at the plate all while affording the team some extra money to spend elsewhere.
Kazuma Okamoto - 4 years
2026 - $15 million
2027 - $15 million
2028 - $15 million, opt-out
2029 - $15 million
There is a certain math problem you have to do when you think about what this team says they will do, will have to do, and could do in the 2025-26 offseason. With a need to retain J.T. Realmuto, replace or retain Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, and with the past rumors of Alec Bohm being on the move, it’s hard to imagine a big upgrade at two starting lineup positions. Well, there is one way. Enter Kazuma Okamoto, star 3B for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. A power-hitting menace for the Giants for the past ten years, Okamoto brings a special blend of offensive potential that could entice the Phillies. A capable RH 3B who hits for power but doesn’t sell out, Okamoto is coming off his best (albeit abridged) season in the NPB. This move is a risk, given Okamoto isn’t proven in the MLB, but there isn’t much better upside you could get for what speculated prices for his service come out to (somewhere in the 4 years, $15 million AAV range). I’d say the risk is worth taking.
J.T. Realmuto - 2 years
2026 - $15 million
2027 - $15 million
Nothing crazy here. The Phillies need J.T., and Philly is a good spot for him. $15 feels a tad rich, but I didn’t think he’d get 3 years, and didn’t want to get too sweetheart on a 2 year deal.
Harrison Bader - 3 years
2026 - $12.5 million
2027 - $12.5 million
2028 - $12 million, with incentives for games played and opt-out
I tend to believe Harrison Bader won’t be the player he was in 2025 going forward. However, he did provide serious value in what he brought to the Phillies OF as a strong defender in CF who could take some heat off of Brandon Marsh. His contract feels like a tricky one, but I feel like a slight raise on his option with term could work out. He might get more in a market with less depth, but this offseason there’s some real options in CF with Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger out there. They could draw some FA interest away from Bader.
José Alvarado - 1 year with option
2026 - $7 million
2027 - $7 million team option with vesting player option at $9 million at 60 IP
The Phillies have already picked up Alvarado’s option, but as I noted above, I would have tackled the situation differently, letting him walk and agreeing to a more team-friendly deal. It’s a fairly negligible change in the financials in the end anyway.
Ryan Helsley - 1 year
$7 million
Helsley had a tough 2025 season, there’s no denying it. Even with how much he struggled in New York, he was still less than stellar in St. Louis earlier on in the year. How much that depresses his value remains to be seen, but there’s reason to believe a one-year prove-it deal would be of interest to Helsley, and we know the Phillies like this sort of deal. While there’s shades of Romano, I tend to believe it would be hard for this to go worse, and they should hopefully have some safety nets in place this time.
Caleb Thielbar - 1 year
$6 million
Speaking of safety nets, here’s one in the steady Caleb Thielbar. It’s a lot of lefties, I’ll cop to that, but Thielbar’s been a fascination for a while whose 2025 may have been his best campaign yet.
Michael Lorenzen - 1 year
$5 million
It ended bad last time, but Michael Lorenzen could be just the insurance policy the Phillies need with Zack Wheeler likely to miss a decent chunk of next season. Lorenzen is coming off a tough season, but was quite good as recently as 2024. Either way, I wanted to get a starter who has past success out of the bullpen who could move there when Wheeler comes back, or another starter comes up, Like Lorenzen or Nick Martinez. There are reasons to think Lorenzen could bounce back and be more than just a fill-in too - his K rate was a new career best for him as a SP last year, as was his walk rate.
Anderson Espinoza - 1 year, split contract
$1 million in Majors, $700,000 at AAA, opt-out of arbitration
Anders Tolhurst - 1 year, split contract
$820,000 in Majors, $300,000 at AAA
I love the idea of trying to entice NPB and KBO guys to come over and pitch in depth roles as low-risk moves. Espinoza you may as having been a big prospect years back, but even now, he’s still just 27. His numbers the last few seasons in the NPB are decent if not spectacular - a good middle-ground to where he could provide value as SP or RP depth, but not cost much. Tolhurst, meanwhile, was a mid-season pickup that helped the LG Twins to a league title. His contract status for 2026 is undetermined, but he did well in a hitter-dominated league, and has experience in the minors in both a SP and RP role. We assume both would be paid as MiLB players for this calculation.
2026 tax calculation: $91.33333333 million
Trades:
Alec Bohm and Weston Wilson to the Angels for Chase Silseth and José Fermín
Silseth and Fermín are pre-arb players, Bohm’s 10.3 million is moved.
The Phillies clearly want something different from the 3B position. The aforementioned Okamoto move gives the Phillies a capable and balanced bat at the position that should lengthen the order. This is accompanied with moving on from Alec Bohm. As good a player as Bohm is, the thought is understandable, and if you can get Okamoto for $15 per, he’s probably a better value. In return, the Phillies add two arms whose values are depressed. As with any intriguing young relief-type arm, it’s hard to tell if José Fermín is a guy the Angels have no interest in moving, or a guy they’d sell high on, but I like him as an optionable arm who could pop as one of the last arms out of the pen. Silseth has injury issues, but has flashed potential in the past, and could be deployed as a SP as well. This deal also includes Weston Wilson going the other way. I think he could still have value to this team, but the numbers game could see him on the wrong side, and the Angels need INF depth in particular. They wanted Scott Kingery, right? Wilson can’t be any worse.
Nick Castellanos to the Marlins for $5 million
$5 million savings on Castellanos for 2026
With the players’s association side-eyeing some of the cheaper teams in the league for spending little, I figured you could pawn off Nick Castellanos on his hometown Marlins for a bit of cash savings. Conversely, you could also consider a team like Cincy, who wants to make moves but not add much to their payroll. Either way, we assume Castellanos is gone and $5 million are saved.
Johan Rojas to the Rays for Mason Englert
Both players are pre-arbitration
I suspect there is no world the Phillies make this move, and I’m not sure even I’ve truly given up on Johan Rojas ever being an effective MLB player, but at this stage, it makes sense to have him get a change of scenery, especially with Justin Crawford and Gabriel Rincones Jr. knocking down the door, and Danti Nori not far behind. Tampa makes sense as a place where he can compete with Jonny DeLuca and some other also-rans for action. Here, I tap another long-term interest, Mason Englert, as the return. Englert’s career has been odd - he missed his first MiLB seasons with injury, then saw 2020 wiped out by the pandemic. Drafted out of high school, he made AA in just his second season of game action, but was then Rule Five eligible, and selected. Suffice to say, Englert’s projection was thrown off, but last year he showed real success in the pen for Tampa an it’s AAA affiliate as a reliever, all while still in just his fifth pro season of game action. I think that track record suggests he could finally be stabilizing, and with his history as a starter in the past, his ceiling could be fairly high still. He will be 26 all of next season. Could even see the Phillies get a lottery ticket back in this deal as well.
Addition to 2026 tax calculation from trades: -$8.66 million
SP1: Cristopher Sánchez ($5.625 million)
SP2: Jesus Luzardo
SP3: Aaron Nola ($24.571429 million)
SP4: Michael Lorenzen
SP5: Taijuan Walker ($18 million)
CL: Jhoan Durán
RP: Matt Strahm ($7.5 million)
RP: Ryan Helsley
RP: Orion Kerkering ($820,000)
RP: Jose Alvarado
RP: Tanner Banks
RP: Caleb Thielbar
RP: Chase Silseth
C: J.T. Realmuto
1B: Bryce Harper ($25.384615 million)
2B: Bryson Stott
SS: Trea Turner ($27.272727 million)
3B: Kazuma Okomoto
LF: Brandon Marsh
CF: Harrison Bader
RF: Gabriel Rincones Jr. ($820,000)
DH: Josh Naylor
Backup catcher: Rafael Marchán
Bench: Edmundo Sosa
Bench: Justin Crawford ($820,000)
Bench: Otto Kemp ($820,000)
Injured otherwise-26 players:
Zack Wheeler ($42 million)
Retained:
Nick Castellanos ($15 million)
New acquisitions projected to start in AAA:
Mason Englert
José Fermín
Anderson Espinoza
Anders Tolhurst
Pre-ARB and guaranteed carry-overs: $168.633771 million
2026 3rd luxury tax bar: $304 million
TOTAL: $299.50710433 million
PAYROLL SPACE: $4.49289567
What I think this setup does is it makes an attempt to fill as many possible holes with the team next year. The only weaknesses of this setup are RF and the backend of the rotation. The latter problem should be aided by the return of Zack Wheeler, hopefully around June. Meanwhile, I think the team has decent OF redundancy and lineup depth to account for the uncertainty in RF. I have Gabriel Rincones Jr. listed as the starter here because he has more RF experience, but I would like to see Justin Crawford mixed in here as well. If this does not work out, it’s an easier hole to fill at the deadline.
Overall though, I think this plan, in swapping out Schwarber, Bohm, Castellanos, and Max Kepler for Naylor, Okamoto, Rincones Jr., and Crawford makes the team younger and more athletic, and adds more RH bats that can hit at the top of the order with some extra defensive flexibility. Saving some money in the construction of the lineup also allows for extra moves in the bullpen. While adding bullpen moves at the deadline isn’t too hard, I think you want to have as many potential high-end arms as you can to start the season to compensate for potential injuries and the year-to-year volatility of relievers. This plan also limits the longer-term commitments some other plans could add, while not forcing the team to sell out on older veterans that are already in decline. Overall, I think this plan balances out the team a bit more, and could vastly improve the team’s game-to-game consistency by adding more names to the roster that can be relied on.
I got a bit of a late start on this year’s addition so it is a tad frantically put together, but I like the way it turned out. Thank you for reading.
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