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Wednesday, April 13, 2022

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - MLB

Wrapping up our level-based prospect rankings for the Phillies system, we investigate players who last topped out in the Majors. This list - like the AAA list - has changed a bit since it was first formulated, with Adonis Medina chief among the departing prospects. Once again this is a mostly top-heavy list, as follows:

Matt Vierling
Hans Crouse
Cristopher Sánchez
Mickey Moniak
Kent Emmanuel
Ricardo Sánchez*
Damon Jones
Andrew Bellatti - returned to prominence in the Minors in 2021 after injuries.
Kyle Dohy

Yeah, that is all. Vierling, Crouse, Sánchez, Moniak, Jones, and Dohy are your roll-overs, while the rest are waiver claims and MiLB deals. Vierling shot from AA to the Majors last season and dazzles at both levels. While he's likely due for some regression, it still looks like he can be at least a 4th outfielder in the Majors going forward and perhaps more. Crouse appeared late last season, but spent most of 2021 in AA. He'll need more AAA action, but his dynamic stuff should air his progress towards some role in the Major Leagues. Cristopher Sánchez showed well last season as a long reliever, and his impressive stuff could translate into serious success if he can limit the walks. At this point, it's hard to know what to expect from Moniak, who was solid in AAA, disastrous in the Majors in 2021, but has showed progress under new Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long.

Regarding the rest - a collection of assorted arms - there is much higher risk. Keep an eye on #6 Ricardo Sánchez and #8 Bellatti. The former was long a decent prospect in the Braves system, but has yet to establish himself in the high Minors. He will get that chance with Lehigh Valley this season after missing 2021 with injury. Bellatti, meanwhile, showed well back in 2015 with the Rays, but didn't return to the Majors until 2021. He's hard to project at this point, but if everything clicks than he could provide a boost to the Phillies bullpen.

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AAA

As isn't exactly surprising in regards to my approach, I have a lot of players who topped out at AAA listed simply due to proximity to the Major Leagues. Now that the Minors seasons have started, some movement has occurred, but I will evaluate these prospects as I would have if I had evaluated them before the season. There are a lot of names I put on this list, so let's break them up.

The big three:

1. Bryson Stott
2. Logan O'Hoppe
3. Simon Muzziotti

Stott clearly stands out as the best prospect of this group, and I would put him 1st overall in the organization for his well-rounded hitting ability and talents on the infield. O'Hoppe does not have a clear path to playing time with J.T. Realmuto entrenched in Philadelphia, but a breakout 2021 certainly boosted his stock. Muzziotti, meanwhile, has already been pressed into service in the Majors, but hopefully will get consistent ABs when he comes back (he's likely slated for AA to start off, like O'Hoppe).

The pitchers:

4. Colton Eastman
6. Josh Hendrickson
7. Brian Marconi
8. Braden Zarbnisky - two-way player who hit AAA in pro debut season. SB talent, played LF as recently as 2020.
9. Scott Moss

Eastman is a likely candidate to step into the rotation should the Phillies need to turn to a non-roster type, though he needs to tone down on the walks. Hendrickson starts out in AA, but after a breakout first full professional campaign he could be knocking on the door in no time. The same could be said for the trio of Marconi, Zarbnisky, and Moss, all likely relievers. The former two were breakout arms last season and start in AA, while Moss is a former (and perhaps also current) starter who struggled in 2021 after a dominant 2019. His big strikeout rates could make him a decent bullpen arm when he is healthy.

The best of the rest:

5. Daniel Brito
10. Donny Sands - trade acquisition from NYY. Converted C with power; defensive ratings mixed (cut down passed balls by 80% since 2017, over half since 2019.)
11. James Marvel
12. Francisco Morales
13. Darick Hall
14. Kyle Glogoski 

Brito is naturally a tough player to rank coming back from his stroke last season, but the 2021 breakout case is still one to watch thanks to his versatility and growing power. Sands, brought over from the Yankees, is a converted infielder who has improved rapidly as a catcher though his Minors climb and offers impressive power potential. Outside of the top 10 there is a bit off a drop off. Marvel is a former top performer in the Pirates system who is a darkhorse candidate to aid in Philadelphia this season. The rest are formerly well-lauded prospects who are in make-or-break seasons.

Friday, April 8, 2022

MLB Sleeper Prospects for the 2022 Season - AL West

Finally let us discuss the AL West's premier sleepers. This division could certainly competitive up top, especially with Houston having lost Carlos Correa and Seattle and Texas having beefed up their rosters in a big way. Let's see who might be difference makers in this division.


Los Angeles Angels - Brendon Davis

Sure, Angels fans may know Davis, but very few other fans do. Davis, a former Dodgers and Rangers prospect, was cast off by Texas following a poor 2019 AA season where he barely cracked the Mendoza Line and his power and speed had dried up. By the time Davis had gotten back into action for A+ Tri-City in 2021, he was nearly 24 and a prospect non-entity. That changed in a hurry, however, as he stormed through the top three levels of the Minors en route to a breakout campaign. He was at his best late in the season as a member of AAA Salt Lake City, hitting .333/.409/.641 for the club. Sure it could all be a mirage, a fact of Davis having repeated A+ and AA and joining a AAA club in the hitter-friendly AAA West, but with an unsettled middle infield, Davis will have a shot to show the Angels he is for real.

Houston Astros - Marty Costes

Another name that flies under the radar thanks to limited pre-2021 professional action and having signed late, Costes is a well-rounded outfielder that could fill in in Houston if 2021 breakout Jose Siri or 2021 rookies Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick falter. Costes flashed power and speed in 2021 between the top two levels of the Minors en route to a .306/.419/.427 slash line. Strong numbers as a sophomore at Maryland, in 2019, and in offseason ball following 2021 back up these numbers.

Oakland Athletics - Jered Koenig

Best known for his independent ball success and his strong run with the Auckland Tuatara in 2019-20, Koenig was a sleeper for the ages in 2021 and delivered. Making his affiliated debut at 27 for AA Midland, Koenig posted a 3.26 ERA over 121.1 innings while working mostly as a starter. Assigned to AAA to start 2022, Koenig could vault to the Majors swiftly thanks to Oakland's unsettled starting pitcher mix. In fact, I daresay it's got a good chance of happening.

Seattle Mariners - Devin Sweet, Isaiah Campbell, Patrick Weigel, Rob Kaminsky

Yeah I couldn't pick, so let's detail all of these players. Sweet, a former UDFA, hit a roadblock in AA last season after previous success in the Minors. He allowed just a single earned run in 14.1 innings after moving to the bullpen full-time last season, showing he can thrive in that role. Isaiah Campbell could also be ticketed for such a role after injuries have plagued the former starter. He could move quickly with his stuff if he stays in the bullpen. Weigel and Kaminsky, meanwhile, are projects after years of injuries, but have substantial Minors success and have both cracked the Majors already.

Texas Rangers - Sam Huff and Josh H. Smith

Here is a tale of two players. Huff made his prospect name in 2019, then came up late in 2020 and showed quite well. However, injuries held him back in 2021 after he dropped back to AA. Prospect fatigue is a real thing, and it's not worth writing Huff off yet - he just turned 24, and still managed 16 homers in 61 Minors contests in 2021. With Mitch Garver's known injury history, Jose Trevino being dealt, and Jonah Hiem's lack of establishment in the Majors, a strong start to 2022 and good health could earn Huff another shot in the Majors. Meanwhile, Smith, who may be overlooked by having such a common name, mashed in 2021 even more than he did in his 2019 professional debut, hitting .309/.429/.535 between four clubs. Though nearly 25, he has only 111 Minors game under his belt, helping his credibility as a prospect. While the Rangers added a lot of infield help in the offseason, Smith could (and probably will) force his way into the mix, perhaps at third or maybe even DH if he has to.

MLB Sleeper Prospects for the 2022 Season - AL Central

Alas, Roster Resource has restructured in regards to its Minors players and now I am sufficiently confused. Sure, the new system might make more sense, but this new one will take some time getting used to. Anyways, the AL Central could be an interesting race this season, especially in regards to the second spot. Who might be the prospects you have never heard of that help these teams break away from the pack? Let us find out!


Cleveland Guardians - Cody Morris

While Guardians fans may recognize this name, Morris isn't much of a known quantity amongst other fans. Well, he's a name getting used to after a stellar 2021 during which he posted a 1.62 ERA and a 13.7 K/9 across three levels as a starter. The bulk of his production came in AAA, where his numbers were about as impressive. Currently, he's dealing with a teres major injury - an ailment that can be tricky - but if he comes back this year, he could be a weapon for a Guardians club that has already converted former starters like Nick Sandlin and Trevor Stephan into useful bullpen pieces.

Kansas City Royals - Kyle Isbel

Yes, yes, this is a bold claim after Isbel made Kansas City's Opening Day roster last season, but he's still rookie eligible and isn't on any major top-100 list. That's a crime, quite frankly. Isbel showed quite well in a stint in the Majors last season, and also performed well in AAA last season after skipping AA. Possibly a future elite power-speed threat who homered fifteen times and stole twenty-two bases in just 105 AAA games last season, Isbel's not a sleeper because you don't know him - he's a sleeper because he's only just scratched the surface as a tools-laden threat.

Detroit Tigers - Shea Spitzbarth and Ramón Rosso

This pair of MiLB signings could provide decent upside out of an inexperienced Tigers bullpen this season. Spitzbarth is a former UDFA by the Dodgers who played a bit in the Majors last season with Pittsburgh after coming over as a Minors Rule Five pick. He's a decent strikout pitcher, but he swapped out some strikeouts as well as hits allowed last season to a beneficial effect on his run prevention. Rosso, meanwhile, has struggled so far at both AAA and the Majors, but has preformed well up to that point, and his blazing fastball is a pitch you can win with. Honerable mentions here are Markus Solbach, and Carlos Sanabria, another pair of Minors signings.

Minnesota Twins - Ian Hamilton

Hamilton's stock was never higher than in 2018, when he rocketed through the Minors and into Major League action with the White Sox and entrenched himself as an exciting arm to watch. In the three seasons since, however, Hamilton's only thrown four innings in the Majors. It's clear he's a project now, but he trimmed greatly down on the number of hits he allowed in 2021 while also posting a career best 13.1 K/9. Walks are an issue, but it's clear Hamilton's 2021 change was for the better, and it could see him make it back to the Majors in 2022 and be impactful.

Chicago White Sox - Jake Burger

Burger, like Isbel, is well-ranked within his system, but even after a resurgent 2021 that saw him shrug off years of injury he failed to return to the top-100 ranks. Having jumped several rungs of the Minors, Burger's .274/.332/.513 slash for AAA Charlotte was impressive enough coming off of three years in a row without professional action, but the burly slugger maintained an OPS over .800 during his 15 game stint in the Majors last season. For all intents and purposes, 2021 was Burger's first full professional season, and for what he did in just 97 games during it, he's being massively undersold.

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AA

Reading's FirstEnergy Stadium is known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of the Minors, making it a tough beast to conquer. As it turned out, Reading was also the starting point for a lot of Phillies prospects in 2021, such as Matt Vierling, Simon Muzziotti, and Francisco Morales, but most ended up in AAA or the Majors. Here are some of the best that did end up here.

Erubiel Armenta
Billy Sullivan IV
Ethan Lindow
Noah Skirrow
Carlo Reyes
Trevor Bettencourt*
James McArthur
Jhailyn Ortiz
Luke Miller
Matt Kroon
Andrew Brown
Tyler Lehman
Tyler Phillips
Oscar Gonzalez

Again, here we have a short list, and once again one that is pitcher-heavy. Armenta is a name I had actually never heard of at the start of the season, but if you don't know it than it's best you do. The Tijuana product was otherworldly at three levels of the Minors, reaching AA with just twenty-one innings of regular-season professional experience under his belt. All told, he posted a monster 19.2 K/9 over 23 frames, mowing down 49 of the 104 batters he faced - over 47%! Another arm to watch is Sullivan, a UDFA product out of Delaware who was converted to the bullpen due to injury issues - ones that ended his 2021 season. However, he still managed to make AA before he recorded his eighteenth professional out, the held his own at AA thereafter. Should his health hold, Sullivan is a pitcher who could aid the Phillies as early as this season.

More arms file in after these two. Lindow was a serious prospect coming into last season, but he was demoted to A+ partway through the season. This is a make-or-break season for him, especially now that he is Rule V eligible. Skirrow, meanwile, is a Liberty product who posted a 1.07 ERA over his first nine outings of the season in a mixed role, but struggled after a promotion to AA and was also demoted late in the season. Carlo Reyes followed up a strong 2019 as an older DSL player with a strong 2021 across three levels, though his decent AA ERA was aided by some UER. Finally, Bettencourt is already 27 and missed most of both 2019 and 2021 with injury, but if he can get back on track his track record in the Minors shows he could be a useful arm out of the bullpen.

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - A+

Many of the best prospects in the Phillies system started 2021 at the A+ level, such as Bryson Stott and Logan O'Hoppe. However, few ended there. the A+ list is one of the weakest lists in the Phillies system, but there are certainly some prospects worth noting. Here they are.

Erik Miller
Griff McGarry
Johan Rojas
Albertus Barber*
D.J. Stewart
J.P. Woodward
Manuel Silva
Gabriel Yanez
Victor Lopez
Nicolas Torres
Luis Garcia
Casey Martin
Carlos Francisco
McKinley Moore
Ben Brown
Dominic Pipkin
Bubby Rossman*

Yeah, that's the whole list. It certainly has a few surprises. Most would probably rank Johan Rojas and Luis Garcia higher. That said, I feel neither has really come into their own as hitters yet, so I remain a bit skeptical. Miller was probably ticketed for AA even just to start off 2021 if he was healthy, but he ultimately was not. He only managed 12.2 innings of work last season and only played one A+ game. That said, his numbers were still strong, as he lowered his career Minors ERA to 1.48 and finished the season with a 12.6 K/9 on the Farms. He may be a reliever going forward, but he certainly has upside. Barber missed all of 2021 with an injury, but he impressed as a UDFA in 2019 out of the bullpen. Rounding out the top five is Stewart, a former 39th round high school pick who came into his own last season as a potential infield power threat.

Beyond this group is a slew of mostly relievers, underpreforming starters, but also a few others Nicolas Torres, in the tenth spot, impressed at 21 after a promotion to A+. If we see more of the same in 2021 then he may get a boost in the rankings. Martin was the club's second pick in 2020, but fizzled after a promotion to Lakewood early in the season and failed to re-establish himself after being sent back down to Clearwater thereafter. This is a big season for him. Moore and Rossman, meanwhile, are newcomers. The former was just picked up in return for Adam Haseley, but has yet to really establish himself as a professional. The later, meanwhile, is that type of independent ball signing teams quite like - a high strikeout guy who they can hope they can mold into a dynamic reliever. Don't expect either to become a great player, but it's worth knowing these names just in case they do.

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - Low-A

The Low-A stop was the first stop for a lot of first-time pros in 2021, especially members of the 2020 Phillies draft class and UDFA class. Many eventually advanced to A+, but of those who didn't, or moved up to Low-A, here are the rankings.

Mick Abel
Jared Wetherbee
Fernando Lozano
Cristian Hernandez
Alex McKenney
Jordi Martinez
Rafael Marcano
Yhoswar Garcia
Ethan Wilson
Samuel Aldegheri
Christian McGowan
Matt Osterberg
Jamari Baylor
Starlyn Castillo
Freylin Minyety

I actually ranked 29 players, but these were the top 15. Abel is obviously #1, and could start at Lakewood this season. Wetherbee surprised me with where I put him, but the older UDFA was very impressive in his short pro debut in 2021, and as a product of a good Elon program where he started he could have real upside, despite his age. Lozano is a rare Phillies prospect who is a product of the Mexican League, and showed well as both a starter and reliever for Clearwater last season. Hernandez was almost dealt to Pittsburgh, but his medicals scared the Pirates off. On the mound, Cristian maintained a 11.2 K/9 during a strong workload in his first season stateside at just 20.

Beyond this group is a mix of other younger relievers, recent signings, and a few hitters. Garcia, Wilson, and Baylor appear somewhat low here, but their placements are not as much to do about doubts in them but rather them having been passed by the pitchers above them. Aldegheri is a name not very well covered by prospect evaluators, but his 13.7 K/9 in his stateside debut at 19 was very curious. Could the club's Euro scouting gang have finally found their stud? McGowan, at 11, is a player without much in the way of numbers to go on, but is loved by scouts and could rise rapidly in the system. Castillo, a recent highly-ranked international amateur signing, showed well at times last season in his stateside debut, but is now headed for Tommy John Surgery.

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

MLB Sleeper Prospects for the 2022 Season - AL East (AKA The Ex-2020 Indy Ball Crew)

The AL East was baseball's most competitive last season, with three playoff teams and a dominant Blue Jays club finishing only fourth. With the tight packing of the division, teams could use a Wander Franco, Luis Gil, or Jarren Duran to separate them this season. Who could come come though out of the blue to help their clubs this season that aren't just these blue-chip types?


Toronto Blue Jays - Jackson Rees and Hagen Danner

I was temped to tab Gōsuke Katō here, but his selection to TOR's roster kinda makes him less of a sleeper. Rees might not have been in the past, but how about now? The hurler missed most of 2021 with injury, but back in 2019 he posted a miniscule .73 ERA with a 12.8 K/9 and 0.892 WHIP that hearkened back to Travis Bergen's 2018 dominance. Not sold on him health-wise? Try Hagen Danner, a fomer C/P prospect who ventured into professional RP work last season to great success. A key sign for Danner was a 0.925 WHIP - an impressive number for a converted pitcher just starting out. Danner starting in AA could give him a shot to hit the Majors this season and supercharge Toronto's bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles - Drew Rom

It might be a stretch that Rom makes the Majors this season, but his work-ethic could certainly help him. Instead of resting during the lost 2020 Minors season, he pitched in independent ball to stay sharp. It paid off with an eye-catching 2021 that saw him go 11-1 and jump to AA. If Rom isn't niche enough, Denyi Reyes, a former Red Sox prospect, could start in AAA and showed well (2.84 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 10.2 K/9) in AA as a reliever after stalling out there as a SP.

Tampa Bay Rays - Ford Proctor

We've already mentioned Cooper Hummel in a past post, but let's talk about who he's the poor man's version of - Ford Proctor. Like Rom, he worked in indy ball in 2020, but Proctor's showing was even more impressive. How so? Try a .346/.500/.679 slash in 28 games. Proctor wasn't as impressive playing for AA Montgomery this season, but his ability to play almost everywhere - including catcher - could see him in the Majors this season, and if the bat comes around, Tampa will have one heck of a player on their hands.

Boston Red Sox - David Hamilton

Boston has some unique sleepers on the hitting side alone, from 1B like Roberto Ramos and Tyreque Reed to middle infielders and outfielders like Ryan Fitzgerald and Izzy Wilson. Hamilton, however is noteworthy as he's one of the youngest of the bunch and provides an interesting skillset. A 2019 draft pick out of Texas, Hamilton didn't play professionally until - yes - an independent ball stint. He showed well with "Team Texas" in this stint, posting 20 SB in just 27 games, his 20 steals being eight more than any other player. He then showed in his affiliated debut in 2021 that his speed was no joke, stealing 52 bases in just 101 games while hitting a decent .258/.341/.419 and keeping up the momentum with even more production in the 2021 AFL. With Trevor Story being the only real speed threat on the club and the bench having almost speed altogether, Hamilton could force his way into Boston's reserve INF mis early this season.

New York Yankees - Stephen Ridings

While Ridings may not be as much a sleeper as he was just a year ago, he still may be solidly underrated.  Just four walks in 29 innings in the Minors - an astronomically low stat nowadays for a RP - is a key stat that shows Ridings's dominance, with consistently high Minors K/9 numbers and great stuff helping out as well. Expect Ridings to force his way into New York's reliever mix as soon as he is healthy again. Not enough of a sleeper for you? How about C Josh Breaux, an emerging power threat behind the plate in a position of need for the Yanks. Oh, and he's also a former independent leaguer.

MLB Sleeper Prospects for the 2022 Season - NL West

With us having looked at the NL's East and Central Divisions, let us address the West. Like the Central, there are three real contenders - LA, San Diego, and San Francisco. The Dodgers tend to be the class of the NL, but as last year shows, that isn't always the case. How this division's order shakes out could have a lot to do with how teams do as far as young players go.


Arizona Diamondbacks - Cooper Hummel

Arizona has a lot of potential catching options with Carson Kelly, Daulton Varsho, and Jose Herrera all as options to break camp with the club, but Cooper Hummel is another option that's much less known but one with the potential to surprise. Hummel played mostly OF in the Minors and the AFL last year, but being able to play C in an era where many teams like to carry three guys who can catch could allow him to stick even after Arizona gets some players back from injury. Hummel's a name to watch mostly because of how he has improve as a hitter slowly but surely since his professional debut in 2016, positioning him for selection to Arizona's roster to keep him away from teams looking to R5 him last year. His .311/.432/.546 slash line with two AAA clubs in 2021 was impressive, but his continued improvement after joining Reno from Nashville (his average jumped by .099) showed he continues to improve at the plate.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Tanner Dodson

A former two-way player and starter, Dodson joined the Dodgers via trade from Tampa this offseason. 2021 was more or less his first professional season with a real solid workload and he posted decent strikeout numbers across two levels. Having not exactly established himself at even AA yet, Dodson may be a longshot to even make the Dodgers this season, but he has the stuff to move quickly, so if he does don't be too surprised.

San Francisco Giants - Jeremy Walker and Sam Delaplane

Here are a pair of RP arms who both missed all of last season with injuries. Both will play most of this season at 27, and depending on the health of both neither may be able to play at all, but after having not played since 2019, both are solid sleepers. Walker broke out in 2019 in his first season out of the pen, making the Majors, while Delaplane, meanwhile, was dynamic for AA Arkansas in 2019, but last played in the 2019 AFL.

San Diego Padres - Steven Wilson

So impressive that he could make the Opening Day roster, Wilson is a name to watch. Wilson has impressed throughout his Minors climb, but he was downright unhittable in the hitter-friendly AAA West last season. A 15.2 K/9 pops off the page, but a 0.881 WHIP in 2021 is incredible as well. If Wilson isn't enough of a sleeper for you, I'd tab Jose Azocar, a former Tigers prospect whose contact-driven approach could help him potentially play his way into a bench spot down the line.

Colorado Rockies - D.J. Peterson

Yes, yes, it isn't 2014, but I am serious here. Sure COL could use good pitchers, but Colorado's hitting core isn't exactly Murder's Row, and the bench in specific could improve. Enter Peterson, who has played in parts of five AAA seasons, but hasn't played affiliated ball since early 2019. Since then he's been in independent ball, and last year it all came together, as he slashed .336/.431/.740. Yes, that's a .740 slugging percentage. He hit 29 HR in just 76 games between the Atlantic League's Lexington Legends and the American Association's Cleburne Railroaders. Sure, expecting production from even a good indy league to translate to even AAA success is risky, but Peterson still has power, and we all know power at COL can become game-breaking.

2024 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AAA and MLB

We're back at it again with raking the Phillies prospects, starting with the top 2 levels this year. The Phillies have only 3 prospects ...