With the news that Bryce Harper is set to have surgery, it’s all but inevitable that he is not ready for the start of the season. The Phillies plan to be aggressive this offseason, so an OF addition could certainly be on the table. Knowing this, I have compiled a list of 10 interesting OF targets that the Phillies could land and should help the team.
Tyler Naquin
Naquin, long an injury-plagued CF with Cleveland has in the years since his first free agent stint become a solid OF4 and at times has played well enough to start. He excelled on a Minors deal with the Reds in 2020 and then took a step back in 2022, but he has a career OPS+ of 100 and has averaged 18 home runs per 162 games in his career. Coming off a poor season, he could be had for relatively cheap and should be willing to sign even knowing he’s likely just keeping RF warm for Harper.
Corey Dickerson
A slightly more reliable career hitter than Naquin but one having seen a recent downturn in production, Dickerson otherwise is quite similar to Naquin. He plays more LF than RF, but could likely play either here and could be more interesting to the Phillies given they have rostered him in the past and he is less injury-prone.
Kevin Kiermaier
A player of speculative interest to the Phillies in the past, Kiermaier’s bat and defense have fallen off in recent seasons, but his ability to play CF could make him somewhat desirable in this free agent market. With Brandon Marsh and Matt Vierling not being the best defensive CF, Kiermaier could move one to RF or LF, or perhaps move himself.
Adam Frazier
A contact-oriented utility-type that is coming off a rough season, Frazier could be a great buy-low addition for the Phillies with the upside as a decent starter and a floor of a passable utilityman. He can play RF, LF, and even dabbled in center last season.
Wil Myers
A bit more of a creative option, Myers should cost more than most of this list and could have a decent market, but if he has to settle for a one-year deal he could see a club with a more hitter-friendly park compared to Petco as appealing. Myers has expansive recent experience at RF, 1B, and LF, and could even draw in at 3B sometimes.
Michael Conforto
Conforto is coming off a year out of the league [while injured] and a down 2021, but he could still have a solid market as a higher-upside OF option. Speculatively a RF if he joined the Phillies, he’s also played CF in the past.
Domingo Santana
Santana, a former Phillies prospect and seven-year MLB veteran has played the last two seasons in the NPB. He’s been one of the league’s best hitters since signing with Yakult, slashing .285/.362/.524 with 34 home runs over 176 games. Already proven as a strong MLB hitter and league-average as recently as his last full MLB season in 2019, Santana could be a clever addition to the Phillies OF mix. I am not sure he’s a free agent this season, granted, but I have seen nothing to prove otherwise.
A.J. Pollock
Another CF that could see their market expanded with a weak CF pool this offseason and one who may wish for a guaranteed spot starting all season. Pollock’s injury issues, age, and rough 2022 could work against him, meaning the Phillies could get him at a cheaper price depending on how the OF market goes this offseason.
Zach Reks
A more creative option who could cost just a MiLB deal to get, Reks has a stellar Minors track record but hasn’t gotten a real MLB look. A 1.000 OPS player in the PCL this season, Reks smashed a robust .330/.410/.495 in the KBO after Texas released him last season. He’s not a guy to bank on next year, but he could be a cheap addition that pays dividends next season.
Adam Brett Walker II
Walker’s another MiLB deal candidate that’s a great story. A stellar Twins prospect circa the mid-2010s, the hulking slugger was on the cusp of the Majors following the 2016 season but thereafter his production tanked. Out of the affiliated ranks before the end of the 2018 season, Walker toiled in the American Association for three full seasons from 2019-2021, improving year to year and winning league MVP honors in both 2020 and 2021. In 2021 in specific he was on another level, slashing .320/.369/.636 while averaging over a RBI per game. He was impressive again for Yomiuri in 2022, slashing .271/.306/.515 and earning a league All-Star nod. Walker does not have any MLB service time, meaning that he could be a trade asset if he shows he can translate his power to the MLB level.
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Friday, November 11, 2022
2023 Phillies Offseason Plan
Following a dramatic run to the World Series, the Phillies will be looking to add this offseason. Varying theories exist as to what they may do. Here is my plan.
Arbitration:
Retained:
Options:
Exercised:
Free Agents:
Carlos Correa - 5 years
2023 - $35 million
2024 - $35 million, opt-out
2025 - $35 million, opt-out
2026 - $35 million
2027 - $35 million
I resisted the idea of adding a SS in this plan for a long time, but ultimately it felt like the best idea. I think Correa can end up being had on a shorter deal given his age and if you add the opt-outs (kinda along the lines of his last deal). I’m more a Correa person than a Turner person, in part because I believe Turner may generate a bidding war than Correa and Correa woln’t cost you picks as a non-QO guy.
Koudai Senga - 5 years
2023 - $15 million
2024 - $15 million
2025 - $15 million, opt-out
2026 - $15 million
2027 - $15 million
Senga’s market will be competitive, possibly driving his AAV beyond this projection. However, I’m banking on team success and the opt-out driving Senga’s decision here.
Taijuan Walker - 3 years
2023 - $13 million
2024 - $13 million
2025 - $13 million
A solid arm that can serve as the club’s 5th starter and is still young enough where there is room to grow.
Roberto Osuna - 1 year
2023 - $800,000
Sure, this is a controversial decision, but if you are willing to stomach Osuna on the Phillies then you are probably getting a good value. Osuna turns just 28 in January and is coming off of brilliant results in Mexico and the NPB.
David Robertson - 1 year
2023 - $5 million
2024 - $3 player option, $5 million team option
Robertson is coming off a decent season
Mychal Givens - 2 years
2023 - $4.5 million
2024 - $4.5 million
Givens is a nice middle reliever. Nothing too special here.
Tyler Naquin - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Naquin gives the team another option as a reserve OF at a cheap price that allows them to let him go and plug Matt Vierling back in as the reserve OF if needed.
Alex Colomé - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Buy-low play here in the vein of Jeurys Familia, and also like Naquin you can boot him off the roster if really needed.
Nick Anderson - 1 year
2023 - $1 million
The Rays just let go of Anderson, so a grain of salt here. Either way, I like taking a $1 gamble on him.
2023 Cost: $72.3 million
Trades:
Rhys Hoskins, Donny Sands, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Andrew Baker for David Fletcher
Total cost - -$7.4 million
This trade harms the offense of this team, but Fletcher is affordable and improves the team defense. ANA could be willing to move on him after poor offense over the past few years. This trade helps the Phillies clear 40-man space responsibly, while Fletcher also provides intriguing upside as a potential leadoff hitter if his contact bat can come back.
2023 Cost: -$7.4 million
SP1: Zack Wheeler ($23.6 million)
SP2: Aaron Nola
SP3: Koudai Senga
SP4: Ranger Suarez
SP5: Taijuan Walker
CL: Roberto Osuna
RP: Seranthony Dominguez
RP: David Robertson
RP: Jose Alvarado
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Andrew Bellatti ($700,000)
RP: Connor Brogdon ($700,000)
RP: Alex Colomé
C: JT Realmuto ($23.1 million)
1B: Alec Bohm ($700,000)
2B: Bryson Stott ($700,000)
SS: Carlos Correa
3B: David Fletcher
LF: Kyle Schwarber ($19.75 million)
CF: Brandon Marsh ($700,000)
RF: Nick Castellanos ($20 million)
DH: Bryce Harper ($25,384,615)
Backup catcher: Garrett Stubbs ($700,000)
Bench: Edmundo Sosa ($700,000)
Bench: Nick Maton/Dalton Guthrie ($700,000)
Bench: Tyler Naquin
Injured otherwise-26 players:
Nick Anderson
Burried:
Scott Kingery ($4 million)
Ideally this plan sees the team improve a little bit in all facets of the game. Senga and Walker should perform better than what Gibson/Eflin did last year, and with arms like Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, McGarry, Sánchez, Abel, Miller, and Crouse in the high minors as reinforcements. The bullpen should start off the season roughly the same as last season’s, and some of those arms could make a play for spots, and MiLB signings could factor into the picture as well. The re-arrangement of the infield and the additions of Correa and Fletcher should improve team defense, while the addition of Correa, a full season of Harper, a full season of Naquin, and a hopefully improved Castellanos the team should be able to cover for losses in offensive production from Hoskins and Segura. Finally, all of these additions are not QO players, which means the team should not lose any picks, and the team would have plenty of room to play within the 1st luxury tax bracket (where I think team payroll ends up).
Pre-ARB and guaranteed carry-overs: $121,434,615
TOTAL: $236,434,615 (Above 1st luxury tax level)
LUX-2 PAYROLL SPACE: $16,565,385
LUX-3 PAYROLL SPACE: $36,565,385
LUX-4 PAYROLL SPACE: $56,565,385
Arbitration:
Retained:
- Alvarado ($3.2 million)
- Hoskins ($12.6 million)
- Domínguez ($2 million)
- Suárez ($3.5 million)
- Coonrod ($800,000)
- Sosa ($1 million)
- Muñoz
Options:
Exercised:
- Aaron Nola ($16 million)
- Jean Segura ($1 million buyout)
- Zach Eflin
Free Agents:
Carlos Correa - 5 years
2023 - $35 million
2024 - $35 million, opt-out
2025 - $35 million, opt-out
2026 - $35 million
2027 - $35 million
I resisted the idea of adding a SS in this plan for a long time, but ultimately it felt like the best idea. I think Correa can end up being had on a shorter deal given his age and if you add the opt-outs (kinda along the lines of his last deal). I’m more a Correa person than a Turner person, in part because I believe Turner may generate a bidding war than Correa and Correa woln’t cost you picks as a non-QO guy.
Koudai Senga - 5 years
2023 - $15 million
2024 - $15 million
2025 - $15 million, opt-out
2026 - $15 million
2027 - $15 million
Senga’s market will be competitive, possibly driving his AAV beyond this projection. However, I’m banking on team success and the opt-out driving Senga’s decision here.
Taijuan Walker - 3 years
2023 - $13 million
2024 - $13 million
2025 - $13 million
A solid arm that can serve as the club’s 5th starter and is still young enough where there is room to grow.
Roberto Osuna - 1 year
2023 - $800,000
Sure, this is a controversial decision, but if you are willing to stomach Osuna on the Phillies then you are probably getting a good value. Osuna turns just 28 in January and is coming off of brilliant results in Mexico and the NPB.
David Robertson - 1 year
2023 - $5 million
2024 - $3 player option, $5 million team option
Robertson is coming off a decent season
Mychal Givens - 2 years
2023 - $4.5 million
2024 - $4.5 million
Givens is a nice middle reliever. Nothing too special here.
Tyler Naquin - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Naquin gives the team another option as a reserve OF at a cheap price that allows them to let him go and plug Matt Vierling back in as the reserve OF if needed.
Alex Colomé - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Buy-low play here in the vein of Jeurys Familia, and also like Naquin you can boot him off the roster if really needed.
Nick Anderson - 1 year
2023 - $1 million
The Rays just let go of Anderson, so a grain of salt here. Either way, I like taking a $1 gamble on him.
2023 Cost: $72.3 million
Trades:
Rhys Hoskins, Donny Sands, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Andrew Baker for David Fletcher
Total cost - -$7.4 million
This trade harms the offense of this team, but Fletcher is affordable and improves the team defense. ANA could be willing to move on him after poor offense over the past few years. This trade helps the Phillies clear 40-man space responsibly, while Fletcher also provides intriguing upside as a potential leadoff hitter if his contact bat can come back.
2023 Cost: -$7.4 million
SP1: Zack Wheeler ($23.6 million)
SP2: Aaron Nola
SP3: Koudai Senga
SP4: Ranger Suarez
SP5: Taijuan Walker
CL: Roberto Osuna
RP: Seranthony Dominguez
RP: David Robertson
RP: Jose Alvarado
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Andrew Bellatti ($700,000)
RP: Connor Brogdon ($700,000)
RP: Alex Colomé
C: JT Realmuto ($23.1 million)
1B: Alec Bohm ($700,000)
2B: Bryson Stott ($700,000)
SS: Carlos Correa
3B: David Fletcher
LF: Kyle Schwarber ($19.75 million)
CF: Brandon Marsh ($700,000)
RF: Nick Castellanos ($20 million)
DH: Bryce Harper ($25,384,615)
Backup catcher: Garrett Stubbs ($700,000)
Bench: Edmundo Sosa ($700,000)
Bench: Nick Maton/Dalton Guthrie ($700,000)
Bench: Tyler Naquin
Injured otherwise-26 players:
Nick Anderson
Burried:
Scott Kingery ($4 million)
Ideally this plan sees the team improve a little bit in all facets of the game. Senga and Walker should perform better than what Gibson/Eflin did last year, and with arms like Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, McGarry, Sánchez, Abel, Miller, and Crouse in the high minors as reinforcements. The bullpen should start off the season roughly the same as last season’s, and some of those arms could make a play for spots, and MiLB signings could factor into the picture as well. The re-arrangement of the infield and the additions of Correa and Fletcher should improve team defense, while the addition of Correa, a full season of Harper, a full season of Naquin, and a hopefully improved Castellanos the team should be able to cover for losses in offensive production from Hoskins and Segura. Finally, all of these additions are not QO players, which means the team should not lose any picks, and the team would have plenty of room to play within the 1st luxury tax bracket (where I think team payroll ends up).
Pre-ARB and guaranteed carry-overs: $121,434,615
TOTAL: $236,434,615 (Above 1st luxury tax level)
LUX-2 PAYROLL SPACE: $16,565,385
LUX-3 PAYROLL SPACE: $36,565,385
LUX-4 PAYROLL SPACE: $56,565,385
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