2026 Phillies Impact Prospects - #6-#1

Continuing on with our list of impact prospects for the 2026 Phillies season, we get to the top 6, where we have a lot of expected names, but likely at least one that might surprise you.

#6 Gage Wood

Gage Wood’s placement on this list derives from a few potential uses he could have to the team this year. He’s already solidly within the game’s top 100 prospects by Baseball Prospectus, and well regarded by most other evaluators - something that naturally informs high trade value and suggests depth at SP that can allow for trades out of that pool of players, but some believe he could pitch in the Majors as soon as right now, and if not, very soon. It’s probable his value on each of these fronts will be even higher next year, but he’s still a very valuable piece for the organization’s plans even in 2026.

#5 Jean Cabrera

Jean Cabrera might be the biggest surprise of this list, but for good reason. The advantage he has on Wood is he’s much further ahead of him on the organizational ladder, which is useful for a variety of purposes. While the team seems interested in adding more SP depth, he entered camp with an outside shot at a SP job, but moreso the SP6 job - a job he could very close to Rangel in. Unlike Rangel, however, his ceiling as a SP is much higher, even if he’s unlikely to ever be a top 3 SP in a contending rotation. If he continues his strong work from last year, however, he could end up as the team’s top rotation fill-in in due order, or as a valuable trade chip, especially with how much teams desire MLB-ready SP.

#4 Aidan Miller

Aidan Miller might have the highest ceiling of anyone in the Phillies farm system, and while he’s likely more of a 2027 play at this point, his strong play in 2025 even while battling injury suggests he could be a Major Leaguer - and a very good one - sooner rather than later. I had him pegged as a longshot to make the team out of camp, presumably at 2B, but after his injury issues and Bryson Stott’s stabilizing, he’ll start in AAA - something that was very likely anyway. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s up very soon, even with the team likely taking it slow with his injury rehab.

#3 Gabriel Rincones Jr.

I did these rankings before Spring Training on purpose so as to not have the results be influenced by small sample size results and be more predictive, so I had Gabriel Rincones Jr. as having the inside track on the last bench spot as a versatile OF reserve to compliment someone like Adolis García in RF in particular, but after his injury in February, his turn to see MLB action will have to wait - enough to where I would have probably had him behind Miller if I did these rankings now, but I’ll keep them as I had prior to the start of ST. A menace to RHP when he’s healthy, Rincones offers several solid skills, even if few are stellar. He’s got good power-speed production and is a capable corner OF, which could make him an important piece for this team at some point this season.

#2 Andrew Painter

It’s tough to know what we’re going to get from Andrew Painter after a rough 2025, but what we do know is he’ll be given a shot. It does say a lot that he was effectively given a SP job to lose in camp, so it seems like there’s a good shot he’ll go the distance with the team this year - something that would suggest one of the biggest prospect impacts on the team, regardless of how well he plays in the action he gets. One thing that should help him is the team’s bullpen depth, which should allow his innings to be managed well - something that could help him be better as the season goes on and hopefully limit how much he wears down.

#1 Justin Crawford

I give the edge to Justin Crawford over Painter because he’s likely to play more than Painter, and he’s coming off of a better 2025 season. Crawford, too, is a guy who should benefit from a managed role - they have the ability to platoon him a bit with Brandon Marsh, and he could be a very effective 9 hole hitter with his speed and contact ability, allowing him to be a weapon on the basepaths ahead of the top of the order. Overall, he may need some time to develop into an effective contributor, but the team will give him time to take his lumps, and I think that could help him improve as the season goes on - something that I think matters a lot more than being more productive in April or May.

This list, of course, isn't exhaustive, even including the honorable mentions, and there will almost certainly be at least one rookie who sees action for the Phillies this year who I have yet to mention. After all, I wouldn't have had Max Lazar on a hypothetical 2024 list, and certainly not someone like Orion Kerkering in 2023, Seranthony Domínguez in 2018, or Luis García in 2013. Especially in the year following a draft where the team picked up a lot of polished college arms, it wouldn't be shocking to see a completely out-of-left-field prospect make an impact for the team this year.

2026 Phillies Impact Prospects - #7-#12 and Honorable Mentions

The 2026 Phillies season presents as one of transition - while the team clearly intends to contend for a World Series, there looks to be several rookies that will play a large role on the team. With that in mind, now might be a good time to see which prospects could have the biggest impact on how well the 2026 season goes.

Honorable Mentions:

There were a few guys that didn’t make my top 12 that I think are worth talking about. First, guys like Keaton Anthony, Wen Hui Pan, and Yoniel Curet could have an impact this year, but I don’t think any will play much or have a massive impact. Names like Dante Nori, Aroon Escobar, Moisés Chace, Carson DeMartini, Devin Saltiban, Cade Obermueller, Mavis Graves, and Griff Burkholder could be potential trade pieces, but didn’t feel as likely to move, or as likely to have big value in a trade as some of the other guys in the system I felt like highlighting.

#12 Matthew Fisher

Very rarely does a team make a 7th round pick and have that guy in immediate top 10 prospect consideration, but that’s where phenom Matthew Fisher sits. Athletic with upside of multiple plus offerings, Fisher, 20 in March, could be a guy who starts strong in the pros and quickly boosts his trade value, or plays his way deeper into long-term organizational pitching plans. It’s not unheard of after all for mid-round HS hurlers to quickly rise up prospect boards, a la Travis Sykora (2023) and Noah Schultz (2022). Fisher probably doesn’t have the same projection as either of those guys, but he has a shot to pop early.

#11 Alex McFarlane

Drafted in 2022, the Phillies tried to make Alex McFarlane work as a SP until midway through last year, before pulling the plug and moving him to the pen, a location most scouts figured he’d end up in eventually. His numbers out of the bullpen weren’t amazing, but he did make his way to AA and onto the MLB roster. McFarlane isn’t MLB-ready right now, but he makes this list because he has a decent shot to be in AAA midway through this season, and his upside could make him more than just a “show-me” arm down the stretch.

#10 Andrew Walling

It’s a bit difficult to get a gauge on Walling as a prospect. Matt Winkelman has him at 36th on his prospects list this year, and he’s really the only one that has him ranked anywhere, which feels odd. The stuff doesn’t pop as much as McFarlane, but he wins the tiebreaker for 10th because of his closeness to the Majors, plus being a lefthander, which should be useful considering the general lack of LHP depth on the team and in the system, especially after the Matt Strahm trade. It’s hard to really expect more than “third lefty” stuff from Walling, at least right now, but on a team whose 4th lefty options are non-roster guys who may not even be in the system by the start of the season, he’s certainly in position to play a role for the team if needed.

#9 Ramon Marquez

It’s been a bit since the Phillies had a nice pop-up prospect, but Ramon Marquez could be that guy. A bargain-basement signing in the 2025 signing period, the 19 year-old hurler advanced directly to stateside ball before finishing the season at Clearwater. Along the way, he turned heads and was named amongst the best prospects in the FCL. He has an athletic and projectable build and good offerings already, which could see him pop expediently. I have him ahead of Fisher here because of having a year of pro experience on him, and he seems like he might have more projection. Similarly to Fisher, Marquez could quickly build up trade interest, or simply make the Phillies more comfortable trading other hurlers in the system.

#8 Alan Rangel

Alan Rangel’s one of the more slow-moving prospects that I can think of that you could also still argue is a prospect to watch. For the most part, his pro career has been nondescript, though it has taken a few turns in recent years, as he went from Atlanta’s 40-man roster, to the Angels system in free agency (where he still generated some prospect attention), to the Phillies 40-man by the end of that same year. His ceiling isn’t that high, but Rangel is MLB-ready right now, and he showed well as a reliever last year - a role he’s long been suggested as a potential plus in. It wouldn’t be shocking if he pops if given a long look in the role.

#7 Zach McCambley

Zach McCambley leads the way amongst presumptive relievers on this list for the obvious reason of being a Rule 5 pick and needing to stick on the roster to stick in the organization, but his offerings certainly play a role too - enough to have him as a member of the top 30 from most prospect boards. His fastball isn’t great, but effective, and his secondary offerings are very interesting. That all is enough to suggest he can be a low-leverage arm right now, but some evaluators believe he could see higher-leverage innings down the line. All of this is enough to suggest he should be given a spot to lose in ST. The Phillies haven’t carried a Rule 5 player this far into the offseason since Noah Song in 2023 (admittedly a bit of a special case), and prior to that, Tyler Goeddel in 2016, so it stands to reason they like him enough to think he’s got a legitimate shot at making the team.

2025-26 Phillies Offseason Plan

The Phillies are once again in a transitional period, still very talented and intending to contend next year, but needing to make moves, with Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, and others set to be free agents. The good news is, they’ll have space to work with to make moves. In this exercise, I’ll be working with the upper tax limit (ie, $60 million over the first luxury tax) as a budget to remake the Phillies roster for 2026. The following details the moves I would make.

Arbitration:

• Retained:

• Luzardo ($10.4 million)

• Sosa ($3.9)

• Bohm ($10.3)

• Marsh ($4.5)

• Durán ($7.6)

• Stott ($5.8)

• Banks ($1.2)

• Marchán ($1)

• Non-tendered:

• Stubbs

• Total Cost: $44.7 million

Nothing crazy here. I think there’s a case for tendering Stubbs on a split contract, but he’s out of options and probably isn’t making the team either way.

Options:

• Declined:

• Alvarado

• Other payouts:

• Bader (declined mutual option; $3 million buyout)

• Total Cost: $3.5 million

The Phillies pay a $500,000 opt out for Alvarado, and a $3 million buyout for Bader’s declined mutual option.

During the writing of this, the Phillies picked up Alvarado’s option. This basically factors in as a $500,000 increase from the projected payouts I was going to have Alvarado get, per below.

Free Agents:

Josh Naylor - 3 years

• 2026 - $22 million

• 2027 - $22 million

• 2028 - $22 million

I know, I know, it’s not the flashiest headliner to replace Kyle Schwarber, but let me get into the weeds a bit. Firstly, I think the more and more I look, the more ill-advised a $30+ million replacement for the Schwarber spot is. Beyond that? I’m not crazy about the options. Cody Bellinger will get too much for my taste, IMO. Gleyber Torres is meh. Trent Grisham will get more as a great CF than I’d like to give him as someone who had a massive outlier season.

Enter: Josh Naylor. Coming into last season, Naylor was a Guardians cast-off more or less on a prove-it deal with Arizona. He was great for Arizona, providing a balanced approach at the plate, but also while mixing in something unexpected - opportunistic base-stealing, setting his career high for steals before the deadline. Granted, it was just 11, but what happened in Seattle was astonishing - he went 19/19 on SB attempts after the deadline.

I don’t expect Naylor to steal 30 bases again next year, but in the last three seasons he’s done something quite impressive - .300 average in 2023, 30 HR in 2024, and 30 steals in 2025. All told, he’s averaged .280/.341/.468 with 17.7 steals the past three seasons. That balanced offensive output could really help this team, and he’s still got plenty of prime left (he’s nearly a year younger than Alec Bohm, set to turn 29 in June). While not versatile, he’s fine at 1B, and can get Harper off his feet a bit, something I’d love out of the team’s next DH. That all sets up for a decent mid-term contract that gives Naylor a nice payout, but also the ability to re-test the market at 31 and earn another nice payout. I would also run this deal to 4 years if need be. Irregardless, the point about what he brings to the team remains the same - he adds some extra speed to the lineup while also still providing serious value at the plate all while affording the team some extra money to spend elsewhere.

Kazuma Okamoto - 4 years

• 2026 - $15 million

• 2027 - $15 million

• 2028 - $15 million, opt-out

• 2029 - $15 million

There is a certain math problem you have to do when you think about what this team says they will do, will have to do, and could do in the 2025-26 offseason. With a need to retain J.T. Realmuto, replace or retain Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, and with the past rumors of Alec Bohm being on the move, it’s hard to imagine a big upgrade at two starting lineup positions. Well, there is one way. Enter Kazuma Okamoto, star 3B for the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB. A power-hitting menace for the Giants for the past ten years, Okamoto brings a special blend of offensive potential that could entice the Phillies. A capable RH 3B who hits for power but doesn’t sell out, Okamoto is coming off his best (albeit abridged) season in the NPB. This move is a risk, given Okamoto isn’t proven in the MLB, but there isn’t much better upside you could get for what speculated prices for his service come out to (somewhere in the 4 years, $15 million AAV range). I’d say the risk is worth taking.

J.T. Realmuto - 2 years

• 2026 - $15 million

• 2027 - $15 million

Nothing crazy here. The Phillies need J.T., and Philly is a good spot for him. $15 feels a tad rich, but I didn’t think he’d get 3 years, and didn’t want to get too sweetheart on a 2 year deal.

Harrison Bader - 3 years

• 2026 - $12.5 million

• 2027 - $12.5 million

• 2028 - $12 million, with incentives for games played and opt-out

I tend to believe Harrison Bader won’t be the player he was in 2025 going forward. However, he did provide serious value in what he brought to the Phillies OF as a strong defender in CF who could take some heat off of Brandon Marsh. His contract feels like a tricky one, but I feel like a slight raise on his option with term could work out. He might get more in a market with less depth, but this offseason there’s some real options in CF with Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger out there. They could draw some FA interest away from Bader.

José Alvarado - 1 year with option

• 2026 - $7 million

• 2027 - $7 million team option with vesting player option at $9 million at 60 IP

The Phillies have already picked up Alvarado’s option, but as I noted above, I would have tackled the situation differently, letting him walk and agreeing to a more team-friendly deal. It’s a fairly negligible change in the financials in the end anyway.

Ryan Helsley - 1 year

• $7 million

Helsley had a tough 2025 season, there’s no denying it. Even with how much he struggled in New York, he was still less than stellar in St. Louis earlier on in the year. How much that depresses his value remains to be seen, but there’s reason to believe a one-year prove-it deal would be of interest to Helsley, and we know the Phillies like this sort of deal. While there’s shades of Romano, I tend to believe it would be hard for this to go worse, and they should hopefully have some safety nets in place this time.

Caleb Thielbar - 1 year

• $6 million

Speaking of safety nets, here’s one in the steady Caleb Thielbar. It’s a lot of lefties, I’ll cop to that, but Thielbar’s been a fascination for a while whose 2025 may have been his best campaign yet.

Michael Lorenzen - 1 year

• $5 million

It ended bad last time, but Michael Lorenzen could be just the insurance policy the Phillies need with Zack Wheeler likely to miss a decent chunk of next season. Lorenzen is coming off a tough season, but was quite good as recently as 2024. Either way, I wanted to get a starter who has past success out of the bullpen who could move there when Wheeler comes back, or another starter comes up, Like Lorenzen or Nick Martinez. There are reasons to think Lorenzen could bounce back and be more than just a fill-in too - his K rate was a new career best for him as a SP last year, as was his walk rate.

Anderson Espinoza - 1 year, split contract

• $1 million in Majors, $700,000 at AAA, opt-out of arbitration

Anders Tolhurst - 1 year, split contract

• $820,000 in Majors, $300,000 at AAA

I love the idea of trying to entice NPB and KBO guys to come over and pitch in depth roles as low-risk moves. Espinoza you may as having been a big prospect years back, but even now, he’s still just 27. His numbers the last few seasons in the NPB are decent if not spectacular - a good middle-ground to where he could provide value as SP or RP depth, but not cost much. Tolhurst, meanwhile, was a mid-season pickup that helped the LG Twins to a league title. His contract status for 2026 is undetermined, but he did well in a hitter-dominated league, and has experience in the minors in both a SP and RP role. We assume both would be paid as MiLB players for this calculation.

2026 tax calculation: $91.33333333 million

Trades:

Alec Bohm and Weston Wilson to the Angels for Chase Silseth and José Fermín

• Silseth and Fermín are pre-arb players, Bohm’s 10.3 million is moved.

The Phillies clearly want something different from the 3B position. The aforementioned Okamoto move gives the Phillies a capable and balanced bat at the position that should lengthen the order.  This is accompanied with moving on from Alec Bohm. As good a player as Bohm is, the thought is understandable, and if you can get Okamoto for $15 per, he’s probably a better value. In return, the Phillies add two arms whose values are depressed. As with any intriguing young relief-type arm, it’s hard to tell if José Fermín is a guy the Angels have no interest in moving, or a guy they’d sell high on, but I like him as an optionable arm who could pop as one of the last arms out of the pen. Silseth has injury issues, but has flashed potential in the past, and could be deployed as a SP as well. This deal also includes Weston Wilson going the other way. I think he could still have value to this team, but the numbers game could see him on the wrong side, and the Angels need INF depth in particular. They wanted Scott Kingery, right? Wilson can’t be any worse.

Nick Castellanos to the Marlins for $5 million

• $5 million savings on Castellanos for 2026

With the players’s association side-eyeing some of the cheaper teams in the league for spending little, I figured you could pawn off Nick Castellanos on his hometown Marlins for a bit of cash savings. Conversely, you could also consider a team like Cincy, who wants to make moves but not add much to their payroll. Either way, we assume Castellanos is gone and $5 million are saved.

Johan Rojas to the Rays for Mason Englert

• Both players are pre-arbitration

I suspect there is no world the Phillies make this move, and I’m not sure even I’ve truly given up on Johan Rojas ever being an effective MLB player, but at this stage, it makes sense to have him get a change of scenery, especially with Justin Crawford and Gabriel Rincones Jr. knocking down the door, and Danti Nori not far behind. Tampa makes sense as a place where he can compete with Jonny DeLuca and some other also-rans for action. Here, I tap another long-term interest, Mason Englert, as the return. Englert’s career has been odd - he missed his first MiLB seasons with injury, then saw 2020 wiped out by the pandemic. Drafted out of high school, he made AA in just his second season of game action, but was then Rule Five eligible, and selected. Suffice to say, Englert’s projection was thrown off, but last year he showed real success in the pen for Tampa an it’s AAA affiliate as a reliever, all while still in just his fifth pro season of game action. I think that track record suggests he could finally be stabilizing, and with his history as a starter in the past, his ceiling could be fairly high still. He will be 26 all of next season. Could even see the Phillies get a lottery ticket back in this deal as well.

Addition to 2026 tax calculation from trades: -$8.66 million

SP1: Cristopher Sánchez ($5.625 million)

SP2: Jesus Luzardo

SP3: Aaron Nola ($24.571429 million)

SP4: Michael Lorenzen

SP5: Taijuan Walker ($18 million)

CL: Jhoan Durán

RP: Matt Strahm ($7.5 million)

RP: Ryan Helsley

RP: Orion Kerkering ($820,000)

RP: Jose Alvarado

RP: Tanner Banks

RP: Caleb Thielbar

RP: Chase Silseth

C: J.T. Realmuto

1B: Bryce Harper ($25.384615 million)

2B: Bryson Stott

SS: Trea Turner ($27.272727 million)

3B: Kazuma Okomoto

LF: Brandon Marsh

CF: Harrison Bader

RF: Gabriel Rincones Jr. ($820,000)

DH: Josh Naylor

Backup catcher: Rafael Marchán

Bench: Edmundo Sosa

Bench: Justin Crawford ($820,000)

Bench: Otto Kemp ($820,000)

Injured otherwise-26 players:

• Zack Wheeler ($42 million)

Retained:

• Nick Castellanos ($15 million)

New acquisitions projected to start in AAA:

• Mason Englert

• José Fermín

• Anderson Espinoza

• Anders Tolhurst

Pre-ARB and guaranteed carry-overs: $168.633771 million

2026 3rd luxury tax bar: $304 million

TOTAL: $299.50710433 million

PAYROLL SPACE: $4.49289567

What I think this setup does is it makes an attempt to fill as many possible holes with the team next year. The only weaknesses of this setup are RF and the backend of the rotation. The latter problem should be aided by the return of Zack Wheeler, hopefully around June. Meanwhile, I think the team has decent OF redundancy and lineup depth to account for the uncertainty in RF. I have Gabriel Rincones Jr. listed as the starter here because he has more RF experience, but I would like to see Justin Crawford mixed in here as well. If this does not work out, it’s an easier hole to fill at the deadline.

Overall though, I think this plan, in swapping out Schwarber, Bohm, Castellanos, and Max Kepler for Naylor, Okamoto, Rincones Jr., and Crawford makes the team younger and more athletic, and adds more RH bats that can hit at the top of the order with some extra defensive flexibility. Saving some money in the construction of the lineup also allows for extra moves in the bullpen. While adding bullpen moves at the deadline isn’t too hard, I think you want to have as many potential high-end arms as you can to start the season to compensate for potential injuries and the year-to-year volatility of relievers. This plan also limits the longer-term commitments some other plans could add, while not forcing the team to sell out on older veterans that are already in decline. Overall, I think this plan balances out the team a bit more, and could vastly improve the team’s game-to-game consistency by adding more names to the roster that can be relied on.

I got a bit of a late start on this year’s addition so it is a tad frantically put together, but I like the way it turned out. Thank you for reading.