2024 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AAA and MLB

We're back at it again with raking the Phillies prospects, starting with the top 2 levels this year. The Phillies have only 3 prospects with MLB action from last year:

Orion Kerkering
Wes Wilson
Cal Stevenson

Orion Kerkering and Wes Wilson should both have an impact on the MLB roster this season, particularly the precocious Kerkering. Cal Stevenson was a waiver claim last year that stuck around at AAA from the end of last year. He could perhaps see action with a hot start at AAA, which he's done as recently as 2022.

At the AAA level, there are many new names joining guys with past experience in the system, continuing to show the changing environment of the system.

Mick Abel
Christian McGowan
Simón Muzziotti
Matt Kroon
Brett Schulze
Griff McGarry
Nicklaus Snyder
Michael Mercado
Zac Houston
Tyler McKay
Taylor Lehman
Nick Podkul

Mick Abel is naturally the #1 here, and may already have the inside track on being the next man up in the rotation for the Phillies after a strong Spring. Should his control continue to be improved, he could be an impact player for the Phillies this season. Christian McGowan is one of the sneakier names that could have a big impact on the team this year after a strong run last season coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Matt Kroon could be the 2024 version of 2022 Dalton Guthrie and 2023 Wes Wilson following another strong season in the high Minors. He can move around and could end up being a useful bench piece down the stretch. Schulze, Snyder, Mercado, and Houston are lottery ticket high-leverage arms that could use some tweaks, and could be risers in the system this year. Griff McGarry is a wildcard after changing his mechanics in the offseason. Finally, keep an eye on Nick Podkul, who had a breakout in an abridged 2023.

2024 MLB Sleeper Prospects - NL East

The NL East has been known for seeing big impact from rookies over the past several years, many from Atlanta. Expect some of the big names to play active roles again, but what about some more under the radar names? Here's one from each team.

Atlanta Braves - Brooks Wilson

Besides prospects of acclaim in Hurston Waldrep and maybe Drake Baldwin, it's hard to see the loaded Braves to see too much action from rookies this year. One other name that could sneak onto the roster at some point is Brooks Wilson, 28. Wilson's a name I've looked at in the past as a sleeper for Atlanta. He missed most of the past two seasons with injury, which makes him even more of a sleeper. He returned late with the same K stuff that he had before injury, including in the AFL.

Miami Marlins - Dane Myers

Dane Myers, 28, was a name I was looking at last year for a mention, but he ultimately missed the cut. While he's no longer the same level of sleeper, having some MLB action under his belt, his monster numbers last year saw him get some prospect love in spite of his advanced age. Myers, a former pitcher, obliterated AA, AAA, and eventually MLB pitching, with a .339/.417/.516 slash line at AAA standing out in particular. Myers narrowly missed the Marlins' OD roster after a monster spring - expect this demotion won't last long.

New York Mets - Nate Lavender

In the midst of a transitional year, the Mets will likely see several prospects play for them this season. Expect Nate Lavender to be one of the first. The 24 year old lefty is a bit of a crafty type, but he owns a 2.32 ERA as a pro and a 13.7 K/9, so that craft clearly works.

Washington Nationals - Tyler Schoff

The Nationals are another team that should see plenty of rookies play for them this year. Would anyone be shocked if all of Dylan Crews, Brady House, James Wood, Yohandy Morales, Trey Lipscomb, DJ Herz, and Darren Baker play for them this year. Here's another name worth keeping an eye on - 25 year old reliever Tyler Schoff. He's got an arsenal of 4-5 pitches with different break action and added velocity from last year. The former UDFA from Bryant should start at AAA, but his arsenal could see him as a big name in Washington's bullpen soon enough. You can read more on Schoff from the following article, where I pulled a lot of this info from.

https://www.romesentinel.com/sports/national/tyler-schoff-talks-about-spring-training/article_20fe0bdc-eae1-11ee-b8df-4b7c27df9264.html

Philadelphia Phillies - Wes Wilson

The irony of knowing a system well is it's hard to tell who is a sleeper anymore. The key I've determined is opportunity. Well, Wes Wilson, 29, may be the man who gets an opportunity. The Phillies have but one spot likely to be held by a rookie this season - Orion Kerkering's BP spot, and he's no sleeper anymore. But Wilson has played well enough in the past ~13 months to where he's a guy who could be the first (or at least one of the first) to take a spot if a position player goes down for the Phillies. He had a monster season at Lehigh that saw him go 30-30, as well as a short loom late in the regular season and a postseason roster spot for a time. The Phillies are no strangers to grizzled rookies (looking at you Chris Coste). Wilson could be the next 30-ish Phillies rookie to play a big role for the team.

2024 MLB Sleeper Prospects - NL West

Well gang, it's that time of year again. It's time for my misguided takes on which prospects might go boom this year. Am I ever right? No, not really, but boy am I gonna keep trying. I'm behind schedule again, so I just wrapped up my first division in advance of tonight's Korea Series Games. Let's get into it.

Los Angeles Angels - Taylor Rashi

Bit of a spicy slection to start us off here. Arizona has a few interesting hitting prospects in the pipeline, and expect Andrew Saalfrank to be a big factor out of the BP this year, but Taylor Rashi, 28, is an interesting name as well. He got a late start last year due to injury, but the former star at UC Irvine and in the Giants system was electric upon returning to action. He's got a 2.28 ERA and 13.1 K/9 at AA in his career, and should start this season at AAA.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Matt Gage

It's always hard to pick for the Dodgers because they generally lack needs and when needed fill them with highly ranked prospects. Matt Gage bucks the trend here. A veteran Minors toiler of 31, Gage has seen short stints with Toronto and Houston the past two seasons, acquitting himself quite well when called upon. He's not to sleepy as a member of the Dodgers 40-man, but he's certainly the most sneaky member of said roster.

San Francisco Giants - Spencer Bivens

There are guys you find and stick to when you follow indy and foreign leagues. The men who do both are some of baseball's biggest unicorns. Junior Guerra and Jason Simontacchi are two such unicorns, and baseball could add another in Spencer Bivens, long a baseball nomad until he finally found a home in the Giants system in 2022. Bivens isn't some toolsy future star, but one thing he is is one of baseball's greatest stories of perseverance. And that's gotta count for something. I recommend reading the following piece on Bivens, it's an interesting one.

https://theathletic.com/3898494/2022/11/15/san-francisco-giants-spencer-bivens/

San Diego Padres - Nick Hernandez, Jayvien Sandridge, and Robert Perez Jr.

There is always at least one team I can't pick one name for. Nick Hernandez, 29, is the safe pick to see MLB action this season, as his track record at AAA shows. Jayvien Sandridge took a curious path to the Padres, one that included playing pro ball, going to college, than returning to the pros with the Reds. The lefty has a cannon for an arm, recording 91 strike outs in 63 innings last year. If he can pare down the walks, he could see San Diego this year. Robert Pérez Jr., 23, is an interesting outfielder who broke out in 2022 at the A levels in the Seattle system before taking a step back at AA last year. He's a strong power threat who could help San Diego piece together their outfield this season.

Colorado Rockies - Brendan Hardy

The Rox have many interesting prospects in their system, but I went and locked in my pick quite quickly this year. Brendan Hardy, 24, was a 31st round upside play by the Mets in 2018, but was stuck in neutral as a prospect until 2022. Prior to that season, Hardy completely overhauled his mechanics, adding velocity, extension, and strong secondary action. The results? A 2.79 ERA and 14.3 K/9. He was even more dominant in 2023, leading to a look in the AFL. For more on Hardy, see the following post from Metsmerized.

https://metsmerizedonline.com/crucial-timing-brendan-hardys-rule-5-push/

2024 Phillies Offseason Plan

Arbitration:

• Retained:

• Bohm

• Suárez

• Sosa

• Non-tendered:

• Cave

• Covey

• Stubbs

Stubbs and Covey are fine values for their projected arb numbers, but Stubbs would probably be the C3 next season, so I’d just let him walk out of professional courtesy rather than make him sit at AAA at his age. Covey is cromulent but I think he’s ideally not a top 8 RP on a contender, and the team can use his roster spot in better ways.

Options:

• None

Free agents:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 7 years

• 2024 - $25 million

• 2025 - $25 million

• 2026 - $25 million

• Opt-out

• 2027 - $25 million

• 2028 - $25 million

• 2029 - $25 million

• 2030 - $25 million

Look, the more I hear about what people think about what Yamamoto will get, the more I shake my head. There is no way the dude gets $30 million per, that’s simply crazy. However, seven years at $25 per would be a great contract for a guy his age coming over to the MLB, and the ability to opt out after three seasons would be a great selling point as well.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 3 years

• 2024 - $14 million

• 2025 - $14 million

• 2026 - $14 million

I like the idea of adding a versatile bat that allows the Phillies to potentially start Johan Rojas in the minors, or to use as a super-sub. Gurriel is that guy, and he should be a productive bat in the realms of traditional and gap power, as well as average. He’s also a nice fielder in left.

Yuki Matsui - 3 years

2024 - $5 million

2025 - $5 million

2026 - $5 million

2027 - $7 million team option, $2 million team option

An elite closer in Japan, Matsui was offered a little under $11 million on a four year deal by Rakuten, so this deal gets him his MLB wish and gives him some extra money.

Brandon Woodruff - 2 years

2024 - $1 million (with incentives for IP)

2025 - $12 million

Okay, hear me out. Woodruff is probably getting non-tendered as he’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season with injuries. The payroll conscious Brewers probably don’t want to hold onto him given he’s set to be a free agent after the season. A buy low here puts the Phillies in an envious spot SP-wise in 2025, and if Woodruff comes back late in 2024 he could be a sneaky BP weapon.

Roberto Osuna - 1 year

• 2024 - $800,000

Like last offseason, I’d be interested in picking up Osuna on the cheap after another strong NPB season.

Trades:

Thyago Vieira for Jean Cabrera

Vieira is a boom-or-bust high-octane arm that makes sense to take a flier on. He was mostly quite good in Japan and returned to the US this past season for arguably his best season as a professional. He might be a cut candidate by Milwaukee, but if he isn’t, he might be acquirable for a low level prospect and can be a low-risk try-out option in the Spring.

James Karinchak for Baron Radcliff

Same principle here. Karinchak has more or less worn out his welcome in Cleveland and should be on the block. Cleveland needs a young power bat, and the Phillies should be willing to move the blocked Radcliff for an optionable arm that can be controlled through 2026.

SP1: Zack Wheeler

SP2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

SP3: Ranger Suarez

SP4: Cristopher Sanchez

SP5: Taijuan Walker

RP: Jose Alvarado

RP: Yuki Matsui

RP: Roberto Osuna

RP: Seranthony Dominguez

RP: Jeff Hoffman

RP: Matt Strahm

RP: Gregory Soto

RP: Andrew Bellatti/James Karinchak/Thyago Vieira

C: JT Realmuto

1B: Bryce Harper

2B: Bryson Stott

SS: Trea Turner

3B: Alec Bohm

LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

CF: Brandon Marsh

RF: Nick Castellanos

DH: Kyle Schwarber

Backup catcher: Rafael Marchan

Bench: Edmundo Sosa

Bench: Cristian Pache

Bench: Weston Wilson/Kody Clemens

Injured: Brandon Woodruff

So, this was a bit rushed, and really kinda ignores any payroll restrictions the Phillies might have. But other than maybe adding more optionable depth, I think this roster would be quite good and it’s not an overall unreasonable expectation for how it could look (even though I know they won’t sign Yamamoto, but one can dream, right?).

2023 Phillies Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - Upper Levels

And here are the remainder of my prospect rankings from the min point in the 2023 season.

MLB:
McKinley Moore^^
Cal Stevenson#

AAA:
Simón Muzziotti\/
Jakob Hernandez
Jeremy Walker
Jhailyn Ortiz^
Weston Wilson
Vito Friscia
Esteban Quiroz\/
Jordan Qsar
Will Toffey+

AA:
Andrew Painter+
Johan Rojas
Mick Abel
Orion Kerkering^^
Carlos De La Cruz
Ethan Wilson
Cristian Hernandez^
Oliver Dunn
Zach Haake#
Griff McGarry\/
Brett Schulze
Matt Kroon
Baron Radcliff^
Casey Martin

2023 Phillies Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - A Levels

I've been lazy and not posted most of my mid-season prospect rankings for the Phillies, so here are the rankings for Low-A and High-A, respectively:

Justin Crawford
Wen-Hui Pan
William Bergolla Jr.^^
Noah Song
Emaarion Boyd
Jordan Dissin^
Samuel Aldegheri^
Alex McFarlane
Estibenzon Jimenez
Nikau Pouaka-Grego+
Eiberson Castellano
Jaydenn Estanista^
Jonh Henriquez
Alex Rao

Gabriel Rincones Jr.^^
Christian McGowan+
Marcus Lee Sang
Hao-Yu Lee
Mitch Nuenborn#
Wesley Moore^^
Tommy McCollum^
Jack Dallas^
Caleb Ricketts^

Obviously some of these players have moved around or are no longer in the system now.

2023 Phillies Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - Rookie Levels

It's that time of year again - time for mid-season prospect rankings! As the MLB/Minors All-Star Break has occured, I have used this time to re-rank the Phillies prospects. Once again we start at the rookie levels, where the FCL Phillies hold a .5 game lead at 15-11 in the conplex league's North Division, while the two DSL affiliates once again are dominating the DSL's South Division. The reigning champions DSL Phillies White are 2nd in the DSL at 20-6, while the Red affiliate is 15-11. Here is a rundown of the top-10 prospects having topped out at these levels this season:

1. Raylin Heredia
2. Rickardo Perez+
3. Junior Marin#
4. Dakota Kotowski\/
5. Eduardo Tait
6. Starlyn Caba
7. Maxwel Hernandez
8. Enrique Segura
9. Micah Ottenbreit\/
10. Mavis Graves

Rickardo Perez has strangely not played yet this season due to a suspension, and to this end has gotten passed by Raylin Heredia, who has gone nuclear since moving up to the FCL, slashing .400/.480/.659 across 21 contests. The slugging percentage sets him apart from some of the other young position prospects whose power has yet to develop. Heredia has also produced 41 runs, stolen five bases, and hit five triples. Meanwhile, injuries have limited the newcomer Junior Marin to just 5 contests at the FCL, but the ex-Royals prospect showed quite well enough in the prior two seasons to be ranked highly regardless. Dakota Kotowski appears viewed by the origination as a organizational filler, but the ex-Miss State bopper has 9 home runs in 21 complex games, which can not be glossed over. Finally, keep an eye on the unheralded Eduardo Tait, who is just 16 but nevertheless has been one of the Red club's best hitters while also gunning down 44% of potential base-stealers. That performance jumps him past the higher-regarded Caba and Hernandez, who are also having strong seasons.