Retained:
Bohm
Suárez
Sosa
Non-tendered:
Cave
Covey
Stubbs
Stubbs and Covey are fine values for their projected arb numbers, but Stubbs would probably be the C3 next season, so I’d just let him walk out of professional courtesy rather than make him sit at AAA at his age. Covey is cromulent but I think he’s ideally not a top 8 RP on a contender, and the team can use his roster spot in better ways.
Options:
None
Free agents:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 7 years
2024 - $25 million
2025 - $25 million
2026 - $25 million
Opt-out
2027 - $25 million
2028 - $25 million
2029 - $25 million
2030 - $25 million
Look, the more I hear about what people think about what Yamamoto will get, the more I shake my head. There is no way the dude gets $30 million per, that’s simply crazy. However, seven years at $25 per would be a great contract for a guy his age coming over to the MLB, and the ability to opt out after three seasons would be a great selling point as well.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 3 years
2024 - $14 million
2025 - $14 million
2026 - $14 million
I like the idea of adding a versatile bat that allows the Phillies to potentially start Johan Rojas in the minors, or to use as a super-sub. Gurriel is that guy, and he should be a productive bat in the realms of traditional and gap power, as well as average. He’s also a nice fielder in left.
Yuki Matsui - 3 years
2024 - $5 million
2025 - $5 million
2026 - $5 million
2027 - $7 million team option, $2 million team option
An elite closer in Japan, Matsui was offered a little under $11 million on a four year deal by Rakuten, so this deal gets him his MLB wish and gives him some extra money.
Brandon Woodruff - 2 years
2024 - $1 million (with incentives for IP)
2025 - $12 million
Okay, hear me out. Woodruff is probably getting non-tendered as he’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season with injuries. The payroll conscious Brewers probably don’t want to hold onto him given he’s set to be a free agent after the season. A buy low here puts the Phillies in an envious spot SP-wise in 2025, and if Woodruff comes back late in 2024 he could be a sneaky BP weapon.
Roberto Osuna - 1 year
2024 - $800,000
Like last offseason, I’d be interested in picking up Osuna on the cheap after another strong NPB season.
Trades:
Thyago Vieira for Jean Cabrera
Vieira is a boom-or-bust high-octane arm that makes sense to take a flier on. He was mostly quite good in Japan and returned to the US this past season for arguably his best season as a professional. He might be a cut candidate by Milwaukee, but if he isn’t, he might be acquirable for a low level prospect and can be a low-risk try-out option in the Spring.
James Karinchak for Baron Radcliff
Same principle here. Karinchak has more or less worn out his welcome in Cleveland and should be on the block. Cleveland needs a young power bat, and the Phillies should be willing to move the blocked Radcliff for an optionable arm that can be controlled through 2026.
SP1: Zack Wheeler
SP2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP3: Ranger Suarez
SP4: Cristopher Sanchez
SP5: Taijuan Walker
RP: Jose Alvarado
RP: Yuki Matsui
RP: Roberto Osuna
RP: Seranthony Dominguez
RP: Jeff Hoffman
RP: Matt Strahm
RP: Gregory Soto
RP: Andrew Bellatti/James Karinchak/Thyago Vieira
C: JT Realmuto
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Bryson Stott
SS: Trea Turner
3B: Alec Bohm
LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
CF: Brandon Marsh
RF: Nick Castellanos
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Backup catcher: Rafael Marchan
Bench: Edmundo Sosa
Bench: Cristian Pache
Bench: Weston Wilson/Kody Clemens
Injured: Brandon Woodruff
So, this was a bit rushed, and really kinda ignores any payroll restrictions the Phillies might have. But other than maybe adding more optionable depth, I think this roster would be quite good and it’s not an overall unreasonable expectation for how it could look (even though I know they won’t sign Yamamoto, but one can dream, right?).
