2024 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AAA and MLB

We're back at it again with raking the Phillies prospects, starting with the top 2 levels this year. The Phillies have only 3 prospects with MLB action from last year:

Orion Kerkering
Wes Wilson
Cal Stevenson

Orion Kerkering and Wes Wilson should both have an impact on the MLB roster this season, particularly the precocious Kerkering. Cal Stevenson was a waiver claim last year that stuck around at AAA from the end of last year. He could perhaps see action with a hot start at AAA, which he's done as recently as 2022.

At the AAA level, there are many new names joining guys with past experience in the system, continuing to show the changing environment of the system.

Mick Abel
Christian McGowan
Simón Muzziotti
Matt Kroon
Brett Schulze
Griff McGarry
Nicklaus Snyder
Michael Mercado
Zac Houston
Tyler McKay
Taylor Lehman
Nick Podkul

Mick Abel is naturally the #1 here, and may already have the inside track on being the next man up in the rotation for the Phillies after a strong Spring. Should his control continue to be improved, he could be an impact player for the Phillies this season. Christian McGowan is one of the sneakier names that could have a big impact on the team this year after a strong run last season coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Matt Kroon could be the 2024 version of 2022 Dalton Guthrie and 2023 Wes Wilson following another strong season in the high Minors. He can move around and could end up being a useful bench piece down the stretch. Schulze, Snyder, Mercado, and Houston are lottery ticket high-leverage arms that could use some tweaks, and could be risers in the system this year. Griff McGarry is a wildcard after changing his mechanics in the offseason. Finally, keep an eye on Nick Podkul, who had a breakout in an abridged 2023.

2023 Phillies Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - Upper Levels

And here are the remainder of my prospect rankings from the min point in the 2023 season.

MLB:
McKinley Moore^^
Cal Stevenson#

AAA:
Simón Muzziotti\/
Jakob Hernandez
Jeremy Walker
Jhailyn Ortiz^
Weston Wilson
Vito Friscia
Esteban Quiroz\/
Jordan Qsar
Will Toffey+

AA:
Andrew Painter+
Johan Rojas
Mick Abel
Orion Kerkering^^
Carlos De La Cruz
Ethan Wilson
Cristian Hernandez^
Oliver Dunn
Zach Haake#
Griff McGarry\/
Brett Schulze
Matt Kroon
Baron Radcliff^
Casey Martin

2023 Phillies Prospect Rankings - MLB and AAA

I've neglected the last of my Phillies prospect postings for some time now. Here are the last two lists retroactive to Opening Day:

 

MLB:

Noah Song#

Simón Muzziotti

Michael Plassmeyer^

Dalton Guthrie^

Esteban Quiroz#

Francisco Morales

Jesús Cruz#

Luis Ortiz#

Damon Jones

AAA:

Griff McGarry^

Noah Skirrow^

Hans Crouse

Cody Roberts#

Jakob Hernandez

Matt Seelinger^

Will Toffey

Vito Friscia^

Dustin Peterson

Jeremy Walker#

Oliver Dunn#

Nick Allgeyer#

Cameron Cannon#

Trey Cobb#

Garrett Whitley#

Weston Wilson#

Freddy Francisco

Herbert Iser

Phillies Prospects on the Rise - April 2023

With April over, the first month of Minor League action is in the books. Thus, let’s look at some players in the Phillies system whose early work has improved their stock the most.

Gabriel Rincones Jr. - A hulking slugger who didn’t play after being drafted last year, Rincones has caught fire as the month has worn on. He now has four home runs in 20 games to go along with 13 stolen bases, 6 doubles, and 14 walks. If he continues to excel, expect to see him at Lakewood in the near future.

David Parkinson - It’s hard to think too highly of Parkinson as a prospect anymore after a disastrous pair of seasons, but the calculating lefty has looked rejuvenated so far for the Fightin’ Phils. Time will tell, but perhaps the year off was just what the doctor ordered here.

Ethan Wilson - It’s hard to take too much stock in a 9 game run, especially at Reading, but Wilson’s early success at the difficult-to-master level after prior struggles is encouraging. A .607 slugging percentage is a key stat here.

Hans Crouse - Crouse’s underlying stats are somewhat concerning, but a 2.31 ERA across 11.2 innings as a multi-inning relief threat are nice to see after a lost 2022.

Wen Hui Pan - The Taiwanese fireballer is off to a stellar start in his professional career at Clearwater, working to a miniscule 0.429 WHIP while mowing down 11 batters on strikes over 7 innings spread out over 3 outings so far. Quite polished for his age, expect the kid gloves to continue to come off on Pan over the next few months as he works into a starting role.

Nick Ward - An independent league get, Ward has shown off all of his tools so far this season, slashing .294/.464/.412 while going a perfect 7-7 on stolen base attempts.

Simón Muzziotti - After a slow Spring, Muzz has been amazing off the jump for Lehigh Valley, mashing .380/.390/.467 while playing strong defense across the outfield.

Noah Skirrow - Skirrow’s stuff isn’t electric, but he’s a strong pitch-to-contact pitcher who continued to succeed at Lehigh Valley. He could get a MLB look this season.

Oliver Dunn - Dunn staged a mini-breakout last season, but a .297/.408/.469 line in his return could show it was no fluke.

Orion Kerkering - A fireballer out of South Florida, Kerkering has yet to concede a run yet this season and pairs a 0.273 WHIP with a 16.0 K/9 rate.

Dalton Guthrie - It’s been more of the same for Guthrie, whose proving his success in 2022 was no fluke. He’s batting a strong .279/.380/.481.

Samuel Aldegheri - Aldegheri looks back in form after a lost 2022 season. In 15.2 innings, the Italian hurler has struck out 25 batters and allowed just 3 walks.

Mick Abel - It might not move the needle on where he’s ranked on top prospect lists, but a strong 4 game start at a hitter-friendly Reading is a great sign for the young Abel.

Wilfredo Flores - Injury concerns have slowed down this toolsy CF-turned-INF, but he’s off to a torrid 15-38 start in his first look at the A+ level.

Jhailyn Ortiz - It’s hard to take much out of just 10 games, but Ortiz has looked much better so far at Lehigh Valley than he did at Reading last season. His .278/.381/.500 slash numbers would be personal bests in full-season action.

Francisco Morales - Morales still carries an unfavorable 3.9 BB/9 rate, but that’s less than half of his number from last season, and his K/9 rate is around the same level as in 2022. Perhaps he’s finally cracked the code.

Jesús Cruz - Cruz has suffered from the same issue that plagued Morales in the past, but he has also walked less batters this season and also has maintained good strikeout numbers. Coupled with strong winter ball work, Cruz could indeed be figuring it out at last.

Jeremy Walker - Walker’s calling card is the ability to go multiple innings as a reliever. After a disastrous past three seasons, Walker’s limiting contact more than ever (7.4 H/9) - a good sign for his continued success.

Jordan Qsar - Qsar is an established Minor league power threat, but early returns at Lehigh Valley show better contact hitting and speed as well. He has 5 home runs and is 5-5 on steals in 22 games.

Esteban Quiroz - An established Minor League hitting threat, Quiroz had a down 2022, but has bounced back quite well so far, posting a .301/.463/.411 at Lehigh Valley, setting himself up to be one of the first names the Phillies could call if they suffer an infield injury.

Vito Friscia - Friscia’s missed time so far, but when he’s played he’s been quite good, slamming 3 blasts in 5 games.

2022 Phillies Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - MLB

The Phillies, for some time now, have been in a dogfight with the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League's last Wild Card spot, but they have been getting help from some young talent. Here are the prospect rankings for the talent that has reached the Majors for the team this season:

Simón Muzziotti
Darick Hall
Francisco Morales
Mark Appel
Nick Duron
Michael Kelly
Bubby Rossman
Damon Jones

For what it's worth, I was not aware of if Cristopher Sánchez or Mickey Moniak were still prospect-eligible, but my information suggests they have exceeded prospect eligibility, so they are not on this list. They ranked 2nd and 5th respectfully. Anyways, Muzziotti takes the top spot, something that's not shocking given he was the highest-ranked member of this group overall when the season started. However, he's again been unable to settle down this season for a long run at any level - his production down the stretch for Reading will go a long way to make or break his future projections. Hall, Morales, and Appel are players who have all changed their projections, however, thanks to strong 1st halves. They could all be future Major League pieces. Duron, Kelly, and Rossman no longer occupy 40-man spots with the club, but each have shown decently this season in the Minors and could perhaps be retained by the club going forward.

2022 Phillies Prospect Rankings - AAA

As isn't exactly surprising in regards to my approach, I have a lot of players who topped out at AAA listed simply due to proximity to the Major Leagues. Now that the Minors seasons have started, some movement has occurred, but I will evaluate these prospects as I would have if I had evaluated them before the season. There are a lot of names I put on this list, so let's break them up.

The big three:

1. Bryson Stott
2. Logan O'Hoppe
3. Simon Muzziotti

Stott clearly stands out as the best prospect of this group, and I would put him 1st overall in the organization for his well-rounded hitting ability and talents on the infield. O'Hoppe does not have a clear path to playing time with J.T. Realmuto entrenched in Philadelphia, but a breakout 2021 certainly boosted his stock. Muzziotti, meanwhile, has already been pressed into service in the Majors, but hopefully will get consistent ABs when he comes back (he's likely slated for AA to start off, like O'Hoppe).

The pitchers:

4. Colton Eastman
6. Josh Hendrickson
7. Brian Marconi
8. Braden Zarbnisky - two-way player who hit AAA in pro debut season. SB talent, played LF as recently as 2020.
9. Scott Moss

Eastman is a likely candidate to step into the rotation should the Phillies need to turn to a non-roster type, though he needs to tone down on the walks. Hendrickson starts out in AA, but after a breakout first full professional campaign he could be knocking on the door in no time. The same could be said for the trio of Marconi, Zarbnisky, and Moss, all likely relievers. The former two were breakout arms last season and start in AA, while Moss is a former (and perhaps also current) starter who struggled in 2021 after a dominant 2019. His big strikeout rates could make him a decent bullpen arm when he is healthy.

The best of the rest:

5. Daniel Brito
10. Donny Sands - trade acquisition from NYY. Converted C with power; defensive ratings mixed (cut down passed balls by 80% since 2017, over half since 2019.)
11. James Marvel
12. Francisco Morales
13. Darick Hall
14. Kyle Glogoski 

Brito is naturally a tough player to rank coming back from his stroke last season, but the 2021 breakout case is still one to watch thanks to his versatility and growing power. Sands, brought over from the Yankees, is a converted infielder who has improved rapidly as a catcher though his Minors climb and offers impressive power potential. Outside of the top 10 there is a bit off a drop off. Marvel is a former top performer in the Pirates system who is a darkhorse candidate to aid in Philadelphia this season. The rest are formerly well-lauded prospects who are in make-or-break seasons.