Arbitration:
Retained:
- Alvarado ($3.2 million)
- Hoskins ($12.6 million)
- Domínguez ($2 million)
- Suárez ($3.5 million)
- Coonrod ($800,000)
- Sosa ($1 million)
- Muñoz
Options:
Exercised:
- Aaron Nola ($16 million)
- Jean Segura ($1 million buyout)
- Zach Eflin
Free Agents:
Carlos Correa - 5 years
2023 - $35 million
2024 - $35 million, opt-out
2025 - $35 million, opt-out
2026 - $35 million
2027 - $35 million
I resisted the idea of adding a SS in this plan for a long time, but ultimately it felt like the best idea. I think Correa can end up being had on a shorter deal given his age and if you add the opt-outs (kinda along the lines of his last deal). I’m more a Correa person than a Turner person, in part because I believe Turner may generate a bidding war than Correa and Correa woln’t cost you picks as a non-QO guy.
Koudai Senga - 5 years
2023 - $15 million
2024 - $15 million
2025 - $15 million, opt-out
2026 - $15 million
2027 - $15 million
Senga’s market will be competitive, possibly driving his AAV beyond this projection. However, I’m banking on team success and the opt-out driving Senga’s decision here.
Taijuan Walker - 3 years
2023 - $13 million
2024 - $13 million
2025 - $13 million
A solid arm that can serve as the club’s 5th starter and is still young enough where there is room to grow.
Roberto Osuna - 1 year
2023 - $800,000
Sure, this is a controversial decision, but if you are willing to stomach Osuna on the Phillies then you are probably getting a good value. Osuna turns just 28 in January and is coming off of brilliant results in Mexico and the NPB.
David Robertson - 1 year
2023 - $5 million
2024 - $3 player option, $5 million team option
Robertson is coming off a decent season
Mychal Givens - 2 years
2023 - $4.5 million
2024 - $4.5 million
Givens is a nice middle reliever. Nothing too special here.
Tyler Naquin - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Naquin gives the team another option as a reserve OF at a cheap price that allows them to let him go and plug Matt Vierling back in as the reserve OF if needed.
Alex Colomé - 1 year
2023 - $3 million
Buy-low play here in the vein of Jeurys Familia, and also like Naquin you can boot him off the roster if really needed.
Nick Anderson - 1 year
2023 - $1 million
The Rays just let go of Anderson, so a grain of salt here. Either way, I like taking a $1 gamble on him.
2023 Cost: $72.3 million
Trades:
Rhys Hoskins, Donny Sands, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Andrew Baker for David Fletcher
Total cost - -$7.4 million
This trade harms the offense of this team, but Fletcher is affordable and improves the team defense. ANA could be willing to move on him after poor offense over the past few years. This trade helps the Phillies clear 40-man space responsibly, while Fletcher also provides intriguing upside as a potential leadoff hitter if his contact bat can come back.
2023 Cost: -$7.4 million
SP1: Zack Wheeler ($23.6 million)
SP2: Aaron Nola
SP3: Koudai Senga
SP4: Ranger Suarez
SP5: Taijuan Walker
CL: Roberto Osuna
RP: Seranthony Dominguez
RP: David Robertson
RP: Jose Alvarado
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Andrew Bellatti ($700,000)
RP: Connor Brogdon ($700,000)
RP: Alex Colomé
C: JT Realmuto ($23.1 million)
1B: Alec Bohm ($700,000)
2B: Bryson Stott ($700,000)
SS: Carlos Correa
3B: David Fletcher
LF: Kyle Schwarber ($19.75 million)
CF: Brandon Marsh ($700,000)
RF: Nick Castellanos ($20 million)
DH: Bryce Harper ($25,384,615)
Backup catcher: Garrett Stubbs ($700,000)
Bench: Edmundo Sosa ($700,000)
Bench: Nick Maton/Dalton Guthrie ($700,000)
Bench: Tyler Naquin
Injured otherwise-26 players:
Nick Anderson
Burried:
Scott Kingery ($4 million)
Ideally this plan sees the team improve a little bit in all facets of the game. Senga and Walker should perform better than what Gibson/Eflin did last year, and with arms like Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, McGarry, Sánchez, Abel, Miller, and Crouse in the high minors as reinforcements. The bullpen should start off the season roughly the same as last season’s, and some of those arms could make a play for spots, and MiLB signings could factor into the picture as well. The re-arrangement of the infield and the additions of Correa and Fletcher should improve team defense, while the addition of Correa, a full season of Harper, a full season of Naquin, and a hopefully improved Castellanos the team should be able to cover for losses in offensive production from Hoskins and Segura. Finally, all of these additions are not QO players, which means the team should not lose any picks, and the team would have plenty of room to play within the 1st luxury tax bracket (where I think team payroll ends up).
Pre-ARB and guaranteed carry-overs: $121,434,615
TOTAL: $236,434,615 (Above 1st luxury tax level)
LUX-2 PAYROLL SPACE: $16,565,385
LUX-3 PAYROLL SPACE: $36,565,385
LUX-4 PAYROLL SPACE: $56,565,385
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