It’s hard, it really is. The way this season ended for the Phillies stings, and it’s difficult to not lament what was probably a pretty big opportunity. In the end though, what is done is done, and all you can do is look back and learn for the future. Here’s the good news - the Phillies might just be as best equipped as anyone to crack the code and replicate the Dodgers next year. Yes, I think they’re actually pretty well positioned to be better in 2026 then they were in 2025. How? Let’s break it down.
First, let’s talk about this Dodgers team. In the end, they were probably the worst possible matchup on the pitching side for this Phillies team. An elite rotation as deep as they’d been all year with stellar arms they could throw out of the bullpen at will. Emmet Sheehan, a starter with a WHIP under 1 available for multi-inning stretches at will. Rōki Sasaki’s arsenal the envy of any closer in the 9th. And naturally the actual Dodgers bullpen, which stunk, but it just so happened that their only good arms were all lefties. It’s a setup that makes Harrison Bader being banged up sting all that much more, and a setup that makes you wish Zack Wheeler was available so you could perhaps better replicate it. These things would probably have only moved the needle so much, but with the razor-thin margins in this series, these things could really add up.
In the end, this series teaches us a few lessons. Right out, there’s an obvious handedness issue with this team - too many lefties at the top of the order. They tried to run from it, but simply could not. It would also probably benefit this team to have some extra depth in the rotation going into the postseason to better match up with LA’s ability to throw multiple starters in a game out of the bullpen. And something that really hurt this team was a lack of relievers playing above expectations this year. Tanner Banks would count, but if you look around at most successful playoff teams, they usually have a few of those guys. Ideally finding some more trustworthy depth can help you not have to keep relying on the same arms in the same spots.
Anyway, let’s talk about some of the good elements of this team that should portend well for next year. The most obvious is the rotation. Even acknowledging Wheeler’s going to miss the start of next year, they’ve got some arms returning you have to feel really good about, namely in Sanchez and Luzardo - two guys who handled a fierce Dodgers lineup - namely the top of the order - REALLY well these playoffs. You’d expect a bit better luck for that top 4/5 group just by natural positive regression, but this post series showed this team - and namely those two - could play with anyone. Losing Suarez certainly would sting, but I think this team realizes they need another SP3-type arm they can trust for next year, and they’ll make sure to get one. From there, you could work to replicate LA’s system internally. Having Sanchez, Luzardo, a new middle of the rotation starter, some likely positive regression from Nola, and eventually Wheeler’s as good a setup as you could expect, and then you have Painter as an option whenever (maybe to start the season, maybe not), and they’ve got some names internally that could conceivably factor into the mix late in the season, such as Cabrera, Wood, or Obermueller, to name a few.
The bullpen is a simple prospect. Clearing $14 million of Romano and Ross affords you some more flexibility to get one or even multiple arms you feel really good about factoring in leverage spots. Speculatively, the return and reliability of José Alvarado is up in the air. If you let him walk, that’s another $9 million free, but I could see the team bring him back at a lower dollar amount, which gives you some extra continuity and familiarity at a cheaper rate. His left-handed power out of the pen has given LAD in particular fits in the past. Bringing Alvarado back gives you Duran, Strahm, Banks, Kerkering, and Alvarado with probably $15 million plus cleared off in full season payroll out of the bullpen alone. Add some for that top 2, either via trade or free agency, and another good option to the next tier already has that bullpen looking pretty good.
In the lineup, let’s talk about some of the names we expect to return. Brandon Marsh had a miserable start to the season, but somehow finished with an OPS near .800. I think part of what you have to feel pretty good about the Brandon Marsh experience is the team knows better now than ever how best to deploy him - as a leftfielder who you play a bit touch-and-go on versus lefties. The good news, is they probably are in a decent spot to land a CF you can feel good about. I think they can get something done with Bader that works for both sides (probably a mid-term deal in the low-mid teens in millions). If not Bader, Cody Bellinger looms as an option, even if he isn’t an IDEAL CF at this stage.
I think the infield looks a bit more certain now. Bryson Stott turned a corner offensively around about mid-July, hitting .307/.376/.508 from the 23rd on. As a strong defender at least at 2B, his spot as at least a 5 game a week starter looks more certain now. If not, you still have Edmundo Sosa, who had a fantastic season, and you’ll imagine they’ll keep trying to find ways to get him in the lineup. Trea Turner…still leaves a bit to be desired at SS, though I suppose you feel better about him now. Even so, you have Stott and Sosa as redundancy, and MAYBE perhaps they move him to right field? I wasn’t as impressed as Trea’s offensive season at first, though I think that was more a matter of decreased power being a thing with him this year. I don’t see a reason really why that would keep up though, so I think him just getting back to 20 HR is not only something I would expect, but it would feel very encouraging, especially if the bottom of the lineup can be above-average at times again next year.
In regards to departures, I don’t think anyone will be missing Kepler and Casty. The former is a free agent, and whether or not they can get anything back in salary relief for the latter (Miami takes part of the contract to appease the players union?), it’s a net loss not having him at all after last year. We’ll talk more replacement ideas for the OF corners in a bit, but again, addition by subtraction here.
I think the catcher situation is fairly simple - they will bring back J.T. Yeah, he’s old for a catcher, but he’s still good behind the plate (especially when it’s not Jordan Romano “holding” runners on) and trusted by the pitching staff. Of course, the hitting probably is what it is, but the way he was striking the ball in the playoffs certainly suggests he still has bat speed. I’m a Rafael Marchán defender, but you do have to imagine they’ll look for extra support for J.T. next year. I’d throw a Luis Campusano out there as a guy that could be had for cheap who could challenge Marchán for the C2 spot.
Now, the real questions remain at 3B and DH. Bohm had a decent season, and his defense improved for sure. I get why he’s a clunky fit there, but part of the reason they were using him so high in the lineup is why it’s hard to simply move on from him - he’s simply one of their better hitters. At $10 million, they’ll probably be bringing him back. If they don’t though, they have a pretty good 3B class to work with. Alex Bregman has already been connected to them before and has plenty of postseason experience (could also use him at SS if you so desire). Eugenio Suarez probably isn’t replicating his first half form from 2025, but he could provide good RH power at 3rd, even if you expect Bohm to have some positive regression in this category (I would say he does). Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are also big power threats who could also fit that 3B/DH role.
And this leaves us with Kyle Schwarber. I think you can tell where I’m going with this here - the easiest button to push with this team is to make a change at DH for a handful of reasons. First, with an aging roster, having that DH position not tied down by one player is beneficial. Beyond that, this team needs to get younger and faster - I think the best way to do that is to bite the bullet and move on from a soon-to-be 33 year-old DH. Don’t get me wrong, Schwarber had a fantastic season and will be missed. The problem is, if you bring him back, what’s the big button you press to shake things up. Ultimately, even if he has another good season, he probably won’t play as well next year, and for all his past successes, Schwarber was exposed in all but two postseason games in the past two seasons, and with the team’s obvious lefty bias, I feel like you need to get a righty here. The good news is, there will be options, namely the aforementioned Bregman or Pete Alonso, and if you can’t land either, there are lefties in Bellinger or Kyle Tucker that may be better stylistic fits for this team. If you want to expand your options out a bit, the team could make a move for Bo Bichette, one of the younger names on the market, while moving Trea off SS.
If the team is moving on from multiple guys, they’ll probably have to consider making replacements internally. The good news is, they’re probably better positioned now than they’ve been in years to make potential high-impact replacements internally. Beyond the aforementioned Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford spent the entire season in AAA to great results, and industry experts seem to think he’ll have a job to lose in the spring. He could at least start with a timeshare in one of the OF spots, and actually has pretty solid numbers versus lefties, so he could see time as Marsh’s platoon partner. Aidan Miller may need to start at AAA, but finished strong, and would have went to the AFL if not for injury concerns, which leads me to believe they want him as ready as possible to start next season. He could factor somewhere into that infield mix, especially if the team considers moving Bohm, or getting Trea off SS. Beyond an expanded role for Otto Kemp, who could help provide some extra power in his 2nd year in the Majors, contact-crazed Keaton Anthony could be the Phillies answer to Luis Arraez, and don’t sleep on Gabriel Rincones Jr., who worked around a slow start and injury hangups to slash .260/.395/.475 from June on while being a great power-speed threat and dropping his K/BB rate from nearly 2.2 to just over 1.4.
And yes, there is one man I left out. I’m not going to tell you I know what the deal is with Bryce Harper, but I can afford you a few things. One, I think the team will hopefully have a better plan for dealing with the wrist problem than they did coming into this year, seeing that it lingered a lot more than they expected. And secondly, I think if they can find a way to open up the DH spot some more, they can perhaps find a way to keep him as fresh as possible going forward. Whether or not they bring back Schwarber, I’d imagine it’s on their mind. Either way, I simply refuse to write Harper off as “cooked”. I don’t think he’s winning another MVP, but I don’t think his days as an impact bat are done, and if I know Bryce Harper, I know he’ll work as hard as he can to make sure he’s not done.
In the end, there is a lot of work that this team needs to get done to actually get better than they were in 2025. That said, I really do believe this plan isn’t that hard to implement, and I think it probably fairly closely aligns with what they’re thinking about for next year as well.
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